Alexander Zverev marched through the match again and seemed to have Taylor Fritz under control. But in the end, the German struggled with his physical fitness due to knee problems, while the American raised the level and turned the match around.
It is his second appearance in a Wimbledon quarter-final. For his opponent Musetti, it’s his first ever. However, I don’t think he has the best chances against Fritz. In my Musetti Fritz betting tip, I am therefore sending the -1.5 set handicap for Fritz into the race at Bet365
Fritz continues to march on in an almost flawless grass court season so far. He has won ten of his eleven matches, including snatching the title at the Wimbledon preparation tournament in Eastbourne and is now in the quarter-finals on the hallowed turf, just like in 2022.
And he goes into the match against Musetti as the favorite. Our European Championship bookmakers, who are of course also at the start in Wimbledon, give him a 1.25. Musetti starts at 3.75. A spread that still leaves the -1.5 set handicap for Fritz in a lucrative range.
At these 1.58 odds from Bet365, Musetti can win a maximum of one set. I don’t think the man from Carrara is capable of more, as he is much more susceptible on his serve than his opponent, who has hardly let Zverev into a service game recently
Zverev only took 21 percent of the points when Fritz served and the German is anything but a bad return player. Alejandro Tabilo and Christopher O’Connell even stayed below the 20 percent mark.
When it comes down to it, he can increase his rate of first serves. In the round of 16 and the round of 16, for example, he hit significantly more first serves compared to the previous rounds.
This will also present Musetti with a big task, who has only faced one ace on serve, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
The 26th player in the world read the serve well and was always able to fight his way into the rallies, where he was then able to take control as a much more mobile player
In many situations, his opponent lacked the ideas and quality to make more of the ball he had just returned with his second shot. Fritz has a better overall package and moves much better on the court.
In the first rounds in particular, Constant Lestienne and Luciano Darderi showed how Musetti can be taken off serve. He lost eight service games in these matches. With Francisco Comesana and Mpetshi Perricard, he then caught two inexperienced opponents on the green.
For comparison: Fritz has only lost two service games in total at Wimbledon, one against Zverev, who only managed to get two break points, and one against Arthur Rinderknech.
The direct comparison also shows that Musetti has the edge on speed courts. They played against each other in the first round of Wimbledon in 2022, with the Southern Californian coming out on top in three straight sets without a tie-break.
This was also the case almost six months later in the Davis Cup, where the final score was 7-6, 6-3. Musetti was able to successfully return the favor on his favorite surface, the red clay. They played each other in round one in Monte Carlo this year, 6-4, 6-4 for Musetti.
Fritz had a pitch-black day with a disastrous 44 percent of first serves. He is currently in a completely different form, getting stronger from match to match. He also draws a lot of self-confidence from his mega comeback against the four of the world.
Due to the improved service values, I think at least a tiebreak is not unlikely, Betano is serving you 1.35 odds, not a bad option for a combination ticket with the official partner of the European Championship 2024, where you can secure a 20 euro free bet without a deposit!
My Musetti Fritz tip
The two direct duels on fast surfaces were won outright by Fritz against Musetti. At the time, the 20-year-old Italian was not yet as established as he is now, but was already in similar spheres in the world rankings.
Fritz’s dangerous serve is particularly effective on grass, on average he only gives away one in five points at Wimbledon when he is on serve. The chances of a break are very slim and, according to the ATP, the fourth-best server also has an advantage in a possible tie-break.
I see him clearly ahead of Musetti, who has improved over the course of the tournament and had already delivered strong grass court tournaments before Wimbledon, but hasn’t met the crème de la crème of the grass court tennis world recently either.
Fritz has only dropped two service games in 15 sets. The quality of his serve should make the difference in this duel.
My Musetti Fritz tip: Musetti won’t win two sets
