Austrian Grand Prix in Spielberg, Sunday, 30.06.2024
He’s beatable, but still grabs the wins. After the race in Canada, Max Verstappen triumphed again last week in Spain and extended his lead in the world championship. On the track, however, it has melted away considerably. Lando Norris in particular is exerting pressure.
The Briton got off to a bad start from pole last week, but was the faster driver in the race, although he was never able to get dangerously close to the Dutchman due to a questionable strategy by McLaren.
Will Red Bull also stumble in their home race at the Austrian GP? The bookmakers see Norris as a serious contender. While Verstappen is racking up win after win, his team-mate Sergio Perez has been left behind.
Therefore, in my Formula 1 Spielberg betting tip with the bookie Bwin, I also opt for the duel bet that he will finish behind Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz.
Verstappen knows what it feels like to win at the Red Bull Ring. He has already lifted the trophy for first place four times in Styria. In 2018, 2019, 2021 and last season, he drove away from the competition.
The track definitely suits the Dutchman, who has finished on the podium here six times in total. And in 2024, he is also the favorite for a 1.60 at the betting provider Winamax, where you can currently grab a whopping 200 euros in free bet credit
A generous 1.60 win odds for the world champions of the last three years, which was very different at the start of the season. The odds were sometimes below 1.20, that’s how dominant Red Bull was and how dominant experts expected the team to be throughout the season.
But there is no longer any sign of the easy one-two wins. The RB20 is no longer clearly the fastest car. Since the updates in Miami, Norris’ McLaren has been as quick as an arrow on every circuit so far, and the car is more consistent than the Red Bull.
The Austrians have problems with drivability, with rougher kerbs in particular causing instability. Not only McLaren has moved closer, Mercedes has also cut an increasingly better figure since the Silver Arrows were fitted with a new front wing
In Canada, Mercedes snatched pole and was in contention for victory; in Barcelona, they were only a few tenths of a second per lap off the pace. And now at the Red Bull Ring? Mercedes is not quite as strong there.
Team boss Toto Wolff’s car is still considered too “draggy”, i.e. it has too much drag on the straights, which slows it down; McLaren and Red Bull still have an advantage in terms of aerodynamic efficiency.
As a result, British drivers George Russell and Lewis Hamilton are only classified as fourth behind Charles Leclerc, each with double-digit victory odds
But: Record world champion Lewis Hamilton has definitely tasted blood again after his first podium since October. The battle at the top of Formula 1 is exciting again and qualifying can also be really close. Nuances have already made the difference in Montreal and Barcelona.
Or the time at which the lap time was set. In the end, Russell and Verstappen set the same time on the Ile Notre Dame, but Russell was allowed to start from first place because he burned his lap time into the asphalt first
With lap times of just over a minute, the slightest mistake will cost you several places on the grid. At the last race weekend, the top six were separated by less than four tenths of a second. I therefore see Verstappen as anything but clearly ahead.
This is not the only reason why Bwin’s 2.30 for a non-Verstappen victory on Sunday is a hot option. His team always has problems getting the car set up correctly, and the perfect set-up is often only achieved on Saturday shortly before qualifying
But in Austria there will only be a 60-minute Friday practice session, as it’s another sprint weekend. This means that sprint qualifying will take place directly after practice, before the sprint races and qualifying for the main race take place on Saturday.
After all, since this year the set-up can be adjusted after the sprint. Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, what about Ferrari? They brought updates to Imola that were enough to win the GP in Monaco, but the Italians weakened afterwards
The last 5 races of the Austrian GP:
Surprising, given that the Scuderia was the clear runner-up at the start of the season. Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz are now driving what is probably only the fourth most powerful car, although the gaps are minimal. A different type of track, which we now have in Austria, can quickly shake things up.
And Ferrari has sold well in Spielberg in recent years. Leclerc won in 2022, last year it was enough for second place, and in 2019 and 2020 the Monegasque also finished second on the podium. A Ferrari has finished in the top three in seven of the last eight editions of the Austrian GP
Only Nico Hülkenberg, who is always fighting for points in his Haas, continues to fly the German flag. He missed the top 10 five times in eleventh place by a hair’s breadth, bitter! Above all, there were four eleventh places in the last five races.
At the start of the season, he was able to take home four points. But the midfield competition is developing better. Alpine in particular is getting further and further ahead. However, the circuit in Spielberg does not suit the French team. The Renault engine is still clearly the weakest power unit.
There is no catching up with the frozen engine regulations. Therefore, Alpine is not to be expected on the high-speed circuit in Styria, the chances of points for Hülkenberg all the greater, the odds of over 3.00 with the best betting providers an eye-catcher
Conclusion: I don’t have much faith in Alpine in Spielberg and I also think Perez will be behind. The Mexican had a good start to the year, but since the Red Bull no longer outshines the competition, he has fallen off the pace.
He has dropped out in Q1 three times in a row and didn’t have the pace to keep up with the other top team drivers in the race. I don’t have much hope for Spielberg either; the RB20’s difficult handling is giving Perez a hard time.
And Ferrari have been fast on the circuit in recent years, Carlos Sainz is again losing out to Leclerc in the team-internal duel, but is very consistent in 2024 and was recently stronger again at his home race in Barcelona.
That’s why my Formula 1 betting tip for the Austrian GP is: Sainz ahead of Perez!
