Grand Prix of Monaco, Sunday, 26.05.2024
It’s the race of races in the motorsport world, the Monaco Grand Prix. After Monza, Formula 1 has never raced on a circuit more often. To a certain extent, the world championship race in the Principality is a protected monument. While all other race organizers have to pay F1 entry fees in the high millions, the street circuit in the Principality is free of charge.
For me personally, it is the most important race on the calendar; legends were born on the narrow guardrail channel. On no other circuit can a driver make such a big difference as in Monaco. Those who dare to get closer to the barriers are faster. Especially due to the shortness of the track, on which a whopping 78 laps will be completed on Sunday, this makes a significant difference.
Overtaking is only possible with an enormous difference in speed, but due to the current size of the vehicles, the car in front has to play along properly to avoid a collision. Although this can quickly lead to boredom, the certainty is there that it could go bang at any second!
Not only because the premier class is also racing past the legendary Monaco Casino, this time I’m opting for a very special Formula 1 Monaco GP tip: it’s likely to be a tight affair for dominator Max Verstappen. That’s why I’m going for Bwin’s odds that a driver other than Verstappen will win the race!
Verstappen had to take a breather after the race in Imola last week. In the first two thirds of the race, the Dutchman was able to pull out a cushion as usual, albeit not as big as at the start of the season.
The reason: McLaren had already raised the car to a higher level with updates at the penultimate round in Miami and defeated the perennial Formula 1 winner. In Emilia Romagna, Verstappen just managed to secure pole ahead of the McLaren drivers thanks to the unplanned slipstreaming assistance of Nico Hülkenberg.
In terms of speed, McLaren had more potential on one lap and also in the final phase of the race. Norris got to within a second and could probably have overtaken Verstappen, or at least attacked him, with a slightly better strategy.
Background: The Briton was called into the pits too early, losing too much time behind a car in front. Important seconds that he first had to make up in his pursuit of the Red Bull star.
But Imola confirmed that dominance is now a thing of the past. Ferrari has also stepped up its game and the package should prove particularly effective in the street canyons of Monaco
The Monaco GP is also the home race for Charles Leclerc, who has so far had more bad luck than good in the city state. Due to gearbox damage, he was unable to start a race there from pole.
Despite a few offs and slip-ups, the Monegasque is one of the best qualifiers in the field. He is definitely a force to be reckoned with in Monte Carlo. Precisely because things have become so close at the top too
As already mentioned, the risk pays off in Monaco if the car doesn’t end up in the barrier or run-off zone. Because overtaking is so difficult, the car is very much set up for qualifying. On no other circuit is starting position more crucial.
And Verstappen is only a slight favorite with the bookmakers. At Bet365, the three-time world champion is only just ahead at 2.25. Leclerc (3.25) and Norris (3.75) follow ahead of Oscar Piastri, who has been given a very attractive 11.0.
An odds I wouldn’t underestimate. In Imola, he drove the new McLaren package for the first time and just missed out on pole position by a hair’s breadth. With a free bet from Betano (€20) or Intertops (€10), which can be dusted off without a deposit, this bet in the double-digit odds range is definitely worth considering.
Alternatively, the 2.65 for a top 3 finish in qualifying is a good alternative. And what are the odds for victory in the race? Verstappen is already well ahead with 1.75, with Leclerc and Norris behind him (5.50).
The last 5 races at the Circuit de Monaco:
A favorite’s win rate above the 1.60 range, that was a long time ago! In my eyes, even Bwin’s 1.75 is still too low. With Leclerc, Norris and Piastri, but also Sainz, I expect enormous competition. Especially with the first three, I think the qualifying will be evenly matched.
That’s why the 1.95 for the bet that Verstappen won’t cross the finish line first is absolutely top. From second or third place, it will be extremely difficult to get to the front. Alternatively, there is the same odds market for the quali, but only a 1.50 is offered here
If you are primarily betting on action and expect safety car phases, you should take a look at Interwetten. Among other things, they are currently offering an €11 free bet promotion for the start of the French Open. In addition to the standard markets on whether a safety car will be used, over/under lines are also offered here.
A 1.73 beckons for at least two bets on Bernd Mayländer. The 1.57 for a maximum of 17 drivers at the finish is also extremely interesting. Even without rain, which is unlikely to materialize in the coastal region, there are always retirements in Monaco
Conclusion: McLaren is already working on the new updates and those from Ferrari should work well in Monaco and bring the Scuderia closer to Red Bull. In any case, it has already become damn tight at the top.
The top three drivers finished within eight seconds of each other in the last race. Verstappen repeatedly has set-up problems with his RB20, especially at the start of the weekend. If you don’t feel comfortable right from the start in Monaco, you can have a hard time.
Verstappen has won the most important race of the year, which is also part of the famous Triple Crown of motorsport, twice. This time, the top stars Verstappen, Norris, Piastri, Leclerc and Sainz are too close to each other for me to be convinced that Verstappen won’t win.
That’s why my Formula 1 Monaco GP betting tip is: A driver other than Verstappen will win!
