ATP tournament in Montpellier, round of 16, Thursday, 01.02.2024
Holger Rune got off to a successful start in 2024 by reaching the final in Brisbane, but the Australian Open was over after the second round. Boris Becker’s protégé lost to Arthur Cazaux.
An up-and-coming Frenchman who reached the round of 16 and could also challenge him for the title in Montpellier. As the top seed, Rune will first take to the indoor court in the south of France on Thursday.
I expect the Dane to win the opener 2:0, which should be a completely different challenge for the qualifier Llamas Ruiz than his previous matches. More on this in my Rune Llamas Ruiz betting tip, in which I will discuss the top odds from Bet365
After their exit from the Australian Open, Rune’s team has reacted: quite surprisingly, the world number seven has parted company with his coach Severin Lüthi, who only took over in December.
His compatriot Kenneth Carlsen, who is available for more weeks of the year than Lüthi, who is also still active for the Swiss Davis Cup team, has now taken over as head coach. Becker, who has also been providing Rune with advice since October, is still on board.
So much for the action off the court for Rune, who now has to focus on the round of 16 against Llamas Ruiz. The bookmakers see the Dane clearly ahead at 1.09 odds, while another Ruiz victory is considered a surprise at 6.00.
However, caution should always be advised, although the Spaniard’s results before the tournament in the south of France left a lot to be desired, in Montpellier he marched through his two qualifying matches and against Richard Gasquet in two sets.
While Rune is only now starting the tournament, the Spaniard has already warmed up over the last three days. He is an unknown opponent for Rune, they have never faced each other on the world’s courts.
Llamas Ruiz started out on clay. Last year, however, he also successfully completed twelve of his 20 hard court matches. However, he played at lower tournament levels compared to Rune. He won a Challenger tournament in Segovia
He served confidently against Gasquet, achieving a first serve rate of 67 percent, his highest in Montpellier so far. In total, he only had to fend off five break chances against the French veteran, taking three of his four opportunities himself.
He has always offered something himself in all matches so far. I think Rune has a lot more confidence in his return game than the first three opponents. The man from Jerez should definitely be under more pressure.
The indoor conditions also suit Rune. He triumphed against Novak Djokovic in the final of the 2022 Masters in Paris and also played strong tennis in Turin recently, only narrowly losing in the group stage after two three-set defeats to the Serb and now newly crowned Melbourne champion Jannik Sinner.
I would be surprised by anything other than a 2:0 win for the Dane, who has the much better overall package and should only really get into dicey situations with massive problems on serve.
However, like Bet365, I expect the Dane to make quite fast breaks and secure service games. Therefore, the odds for an outright win are only 1.47. If you like it a little higher, you can use the configurator to exclude the tiebreak and get 1.77.
The advantage here would be that a tiebreak would be allowed, but the other set would then have to be won with a maximum of two game losses.
My Rune Llamas Ruiz tip
A loss in round two was a massive disappointment for Rune. In Montpellier, he is now allowed to serve indoors again, conditions that suit him very well. Llamas Ruiz has not yet dropped a set.
But the competition has been manageable so far, he has always been vulnerable in his service games and with the Dane he now has an even more dangerous return player on the other side, who moves extremely quickly around the court.
In the first match between the two players, I expect Rune to get into break point territory quickly and steer the match in his direction early on. The Spaniard is unlikely to make it to a tie-break.
My Rune Llamas Ruiz tip: 2:0 for Rune and no tiebreak
