Australian Open in Melbourne, quarter-finals, Wednesday, 24.01.2024
Many sets, several tiebreaks, the search for great sovereignty? Something that applies equally to two players! At the Australian Open 2024, I’m now looking at a quarter-final that has it all.
Hubert Hurkacz and Daniil Medvedev are two men with a strong serve who have already played out five heated duels – and how close most of them were is not unmentioned!
In my Hurkacz Medvedev tip, I have a lot to analyze, not just the question of why the Russian is ahead with the bookmakers. In any case, my betting recommendation will be: Three sets are not enough here! At Bet-at-home we are still offered odds of 1.50 for this
Whether title, defeat in the final or elimination in the 1st round, whenever Daniil Medvedev has competed at a Grand Slam in recent years, we’ve always had to reckon with all outcomes!
Last year, the Russian failed three times early on, but that can’t happen to him again at this Australian Open. He reached the final here in 2021 and 2022 and is currently two rounds away from that.
His performances these days have not been really confident, rather he has shown that his performances can fluctuate greatly from time to time. The first small weaknesses were already apparent in his 5-7, 6-2, 6-4, 1-0 loss to Terence Atmane before his opponent retired.
In the second round against Emil Ruusuvuori, the 27-year-old almost had to pack his bags! He was already trailing 3-6, 6-7 when he finally remembered his quality and went on to win 6-4, 7-6, 6-0
A few days later, he had the nerve to follow up with a commanding 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 win against Felix Auger-Aliassime. I would of course like to mention at this point that the Canadian is now considered a real wonder bag.
Medvedev had some luck of the draw in the round of 16, as his opponent Nuno Borges was not too difficult. And yet, once again, he didn’t get through smoothly. In the end, he collected a 6-3, 7-6, 5-7, 6-1, also because his rival was only able to use four of the eleven break chances.
Ruusuvuori had already been given the opportunity to break 18 times, but was unable to capitalize on enough of them. Medvedev can serve very well, but 23 double faults in the last three games also show that his service has been better in the past
Medvedev’s game fluctuates wildly and you can’t really afford to do that against Hubert Hurkacz. They met five times between 2021 and 2022, with the Pole leading the head-to-head by a narrow margin of 3:2.
The two have gone to a tie-break five times, with the only match at a Grand Slam, at Wimbledon 2021, going to five sets. So will it be another close match on Wednesday? The bookmakers can certainly imagine that!
In terms of odds, 1.35 meets 3.00, so Medvedev is favored. Hubert Hurkacz won’t be too bothered by this, though, as he should know his opponent’s weaknesses well enough
In Melbourne, he got further than ever before this year, even if there were some difficult moments to overcome. The 7-6, 6-4, 6-2 win over Omar Jasika in the first round was the first outright victory, followed by several thrillers.
First of all, Hurkacz prevailed 6-7, 6-1, 5-7, 6-1, 6-3 against Jakub Mensik, who had already lost a lot of energy here. The Pole also had to work hard in the following 3-6, 6-1, 7-6, 6-3 against Ugo Humbert.
Although he managed to get through the round of 16 again without losing a set, Arthur Cazaux certainly didn’t make it easy for him. 7-6, 7-6, 6-4, a smooth victory couldn’t be any closer!
Hurkacz has already won five tiebreaks, four of them. He averages a good 85% of points won on his first serve, recently it was even 91%
My Hurkacz Medvedev tip
No one likes to play against Hubert Hurkacz! No matter how exciting the Pole makes it, his enormous strength on serve makes his cracking service a weapon that can really hurt anyone.
Daniil Medvedev doesn’t look so solid in Melbourne that I can clearly favor him. In my eyes, both are performing at a similar level, which is why I say:
Three sets won’t be enough here!
