Australian Open in Melbourne, 1st round, Tuesday, 16.01.2024
The list of favorites at the Australian Open? It’s a long one! Even after Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal, a Spaniard is still very much in the running for overall victory, and the world number 2 definitely has big plans Down Under.
In the first round, he will face an opponent who is clearly inferior to him in terms of quality, but who has a great repertoire of experience. So which will win, class or rather the many, many years?
The bookmakers position themselves very clearly in my Gasquet Alcaraz tip and I will now also reveal in my analysis why I am betting on a clear victory for the favorite at Interwetten
20 years old and without doubt one of the best players in the world! Carlos Alcaraz knows that he is now one of the big title favorites in Australia, and if you believe the bookmakers, it could come down to a duel with Novak Djokovic.
But before the youngster meets the really big opponents, he first has to show that he can make a confident start to 2024. Not atypically for players of his class, he has foregone the smaller preparation tournaments.
What about his form? There is no real answer to this question. Alcaraz left 2023 a little tired and missed the final at the ATP Finals as a result
Since the 2022 US Open, he has always made it to at least the semi-finals on the big stage, so of course no one is thinking about failing in round 1 on Tuesday. He has big plans Down Under, because: A year ago, he had to pull out here due to injury!
In this respect, reaching the 3rd round in 2022 is his best result (he lost to Matteo Berrettini back then), so the Spaniard can’t be happy with that at all
In 2021, when he was still a teenager, he already met Richard Gasquet, his current opponent. In the final in Umag, played on clay, he celebrated a trouble-free 6-2, 6-2.
Obviously, our best bookmakers are expecting a repeat of this difference in class, as the average odds of 1.02 to 13.0 quickly show that there can only be one winner in this unequal duel.
Richard Gasquet is now 37 years old and thus belongs to a completely different generation to Alcaraz himself. He did not forego his preparation, which is perfectly understandable for a world number 131.
He reached the quarter-finals of the Challenger in Noumea as the top seed, but had expected a little more here. At the ASB-Classics, his tournament was over even quicker, with a defeat to compatriot Arthur Fils right at the start.
Of course, Gasquet has already experienced a lot on the Grand Slam stage, but since the US Open 2022 he has always been knocked out in the first round, regardless of the tournament. He was already active Down Under in 2003, when Alcaraz wasn’t even born yet!
A round of 16 is his best result to date at the first Grand Slam of a season, so the experts don’t expect him to make a big name for himself in 2024
My Gasquet Alcaraz tip
Carlos Alcaraz failing in the 1st round of a Grand Slam tournament? Unlikely! As the Spaniard was unable to compete in Melbourne in 2023, his motivation is all the greater this time.
His first opponent is no longer even in the top 100 in the world rankings, so it is only logical how the bookmakers have positioned themselves. So is it just a question of how clearly the world number 2 does it?
In my eyes, it will probably be exactly that. Alcaraz is clearly the better player, Gasquet hasn’t had a particularly positive preparation anyway. Therefore, I can only make the following prediction:
Alcaraz beats Gasquet 3:0!
