NBA Regular Season 2023/24, Tuesday, 19.12.2023
On Tuesday night, there will be a top-class clash between the in-form teams from Denver and Dallas and their Eastern European superstars Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic. Excitement is guaranteed in the Ball Arena!
My Nuggets Mavericks betting tip explains why I expect a game with a maximum of 240 points
The host Denver Nuggets, who are also reigning NBA champions, are currently in fourth place in the strong Western Conference with a record of 17-10.
However, they have regularly lost out to ambitious teams such as the Kings (-6), Clippers (-9), Rockets (-8) or, in their last game at home against the OKC Thunder -1, albeit narrowly.
Nevertheless, they have won six of their last ten games and have an extremely strong 10-2 home record in Denver
At 114.7 points per game, Colorado’s offense is only average (15th), while the Nuggets’ defense ranks an elite sixth with only 110.8 points allowed.
Only four teams have a better shooting percentage from the field (48.7%) and only the Pacers have more assists than the reigning champions (29.7).
And only the Bulls and Mavericks lose the ball less often per game than Denver (11.7 turnovers).
Nuggets star Nikola Jokic is building on his two MVP seasons in 2021 and 2022 with fabulous stats. The Serbian’s below-average three-point percentage (30.9%) is the only concern.
The joker is backed up by an extremely good supporting cast, with five players contributing more than 10 points per game.
It will also depend on these role players to counter the firepower of the Dallas Mavericks, as the Texans have the sixth-best offense in the NBA with 119.9 points per game.
Like the Nuggets, who have the best assists/turnover rate in the league (2.4), the Mavericks are also confident with the ball in their hands and have 2.13 assists per turnover (3rd).
It is no coincidence that Dallas ranks third in the Western Conference with a 16-9 record. While the Nuggets are strong at home, the Mavericks are strong away from home and have won nine of their 13 games so far.
However, they were clearly put in their place by the leaders in the West, the Minnesota Timberwolves, with -18 in the penultimate game.
It remains to be seen whether the Mavericks’ isolation-friendly game tailored to Doncic can be translated into sustained success, especially in the playoffs.
After all, only Zion Williamson of the Pelicans looks for isolation plays more often than the Slovenian.
Superstar Doncic’s fabulous figures are offset by the fact that only the top-class Clippers play fewer passes than the Mavericks.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, make the tenth most passes per game.
The fact that they have won the last two duels against the Mavericks and that they have not lost two home games in a row since November 2021 also speaks in their favor.
Also working against the Mavericks is the fact that Lukas’ co-star Kyrie Irving will miss the game with a heel injury.
Since the best sports betting providers clearly favor the Nuggets with odds around 1.35, my Nuggets Mavericks tips bet on the total score
So I’m assuming a maximum of 240 points in the overall game. An event that is traded with odds of around 1.70.
After all, this point mark has not been surpassed in ten games between the Nuggets and Mavericks.
The absence of Irving and a game possibly decided early in Denver’s favor also speaks for my Nuggets Mavericks recommendation.
My Nuggets Mavericks tip: Under 240.5 points in the game!
