ATP Finals in Turin, 3rd group match, Friday, 17.11.2023
This defeat hurt! Daniil Medvedev defeated Alexander Zverev in two sets. This makes it clear that he needs Medvedev’s help because of Carlos Alcaraz’s smooth success against Andrey Rublev.
If Alcaraz wins at lunchtime, Zverev is out for sure and the match in the evening between Zverev and his buddy Rublev is purely a friendly.
I have found attractive odds for my Zverev Rublev betting tip at the top sports betting providers, which are suitable for all scenarios
He had a very different idea of the ATP Finals. Andrey Rublev is already out after the second group match, having lost both matches against Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz in two sets. At 2.20 odds at Bet3000, he goes into the match as a slight underdog against Zverev (1.60).
Although all players apart from Medvedev would have a win if Medvedev beats Alcaraz and Zverev, Rublev has the worst odds of all players to win a set after two outright defeats.
At the ATP Finals, the set score serves as a kind of goal difference. Compared to the match against Zverev, Alcaraz went one better and wore Rublev down time and time again from the most hopeless of positions with his showpiece shots
The 26-year-old, who was voted the most emotional player in an ATP clip by his opponents in the final, didn’t put in a bad performance but couldn’t get a grip on the decisive moments against Medvedev and came up against an almost flawless Alcaraz.
He repeatedly vented his frustration loudly and even bloodied his own knee with his racquet in the second round. He had a lot built up.
Against Medvedev, he failed to capitalize on any of his seven break opportunities. Zverev can also tell you a thing or two about a match of missed opportunities against Medvedev. In the tiebreak of the first set, he was leading 4-1 and failed to get the easy volley over the net to make it 5-1.
Medvedev equalized, but still offered Zverev two set points, which he was able to fend off and took the first opportunity to wrap up the set himself. A bitter ending after Zverev fought his way back into the set after trailing by a break.
In set two, Zverev then missed two chances to break back to 5-4. One service game later, he himself fought unsuccessfully against break chances to make the final score 6-7, 4-6
However, the performance shows that Zverev has long been able to compete with the sport’s all-time greats again, he just lacked coolness against his long-time rival in the decisive moments.
Nevertheless, it was his fifth defeat in his sixth match against Medvedev in 2023. Zverev is still without a win against Rublev this year. Rublev has prevailed three times, in the semi-finals of Dubai and the quarter-finals of Bastad and Vienna.
In the overall duel statistics, the world number five was thus able to reduce the gap to 4-5. The last match in Vienna was the first match in which both stars won a set, before that the respective winner won outright
This definitely speaks in favor of the bet that there will be a maximum of two sets. Bet3000 still beckons with strong 1.55 odds. In any case, this bet is a recommendation for Friday evening.
From a purely sporting point of view, there is almost nothing at stake for Rublev, just a nice prize money of 390,000 US dollars and 200 points for winning the group. If Medvedev beats Alcaraz first, Zverev can still reach the semi-finals with a win.
He should be much more motivated than Rublev and manage a two-set win. However, if Alcaraz wins and both players in the evening match are eliminated before it even begins, it will probably end in a rather emotionless 2:0 friendly match
My Rublev Zverev tip
No matter what the starting position is before this match, more than two sets would surprise me a lot. If Zverev still has a chance of reaching the semi-finals, he can beat an already eliminated Rublev in two straight sets in his current form.
If both players are out, I hardly believe that the player who loses the first set will fight his way back into the match. The statistics in this matchup also speak against it. Nine games, eight winners without losing a set.
My Rublev Zverev tip: Exactly two sets!
