ATP Finals in Turin, group stage, 2nd match day, Wednesday, 15.11.2023
The second match is already the decisive one for the losers of the first match day! Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev meet at the ATP Finals in Turin on Wednesday, neither of them wanting to go home any time soon.
Neither of them made the best impression in their first matches, and now the first duel is an immensely important one. Debutant Alcaraz in particular realizes that a different wind is blowing in the finals.
In my Alcaraz Rublev betting tip, I have therefore taken a close look at which of the two is likely to come out on top. For our best sports betting providers, it’s Spain, but in my eyes his opponent will also win a set.
It seemed to be a relatively easy start for Carlos Alcaraz, as most experts were of the opinion: Alexander Zverev? He’ll get him! In his very first match on the Finals stage, however, the Spanish engine suddenly stuttered.
Although Alcaraz won the first set in a tie-break, he then lost the match 7-6, 3-6, 4-6. He only converted one of his six break chances and conceded three out of eight.
As Zverev successfully hit 93% of his first serves over the net, the world no. 2’s classic figures of around 70% (also valid for points won in the first service) were not enough for him
Alcaraz made too many mistakes and you could tell that he simply couldn’t find a way to counter Zverev’s very strong serve. Were there any signs recently that the 20-year-old was longing for the winter break?
In Beijing, he was knocked out in the semi-finals against Jannik Sinner, then in Shanghai two rounds earlier with a defeat against Grigor Dimitrov. But he got the worst of it at the Masters in Paris.
3-6, 4-6 against Roman Safiullin? Nobody had that on the cards! The two-time Grand Slam champion looks a little tired and doesn’t really seem to be enjoying his first finals
In the last few years, in which he has fought his way up the ATP ranks bit by bit, he has never actually met Andrey Rublev directly. Nevertheless, Alcaraz is the favorite for our best bookmakers.
The odds show us a 1.50 to 2.70, the values show that everything should be in it for both players. Rublev has one thing over him, as the Russian is taking part in the finals for the fourth time in a row.
While he was eliminated in the preliminary round in his first two appearances, he made it all the way to the semi-finals a year ago. Does it make a difference whether he wins or loses the first match?
Not necessarily. In 2020, he was already out after two defeats in the opening round, and even his win against Dominic Thiem didn’t help. A year later, he won at the start but then lost twice in a row
In his most recent success, Rublev had entered the tournament with a win against Daniil Medvedev, and now he had to play his compatriot again. Unfortunately, he was unable to repeat the result from 2022.
The 4-6, 2-6 was clear, also because the 26-year-old did not manage to finish any of his seven break chances. With 58% of points won on his first serve, he also fell far short of his potential.
Twice a semi-final and once a final? A quick glance at recent tournaments quickly shows that Rublev should actually be in better form than Alcaraz, but can he bring that to the court in a direct comparison?
My Alcaraz Rublev tip
Not many would have thought that Carlos Alcaraz would start the finals in Turin with a defeat, now the Spaniard has to run away from the threat of elimination. His opponent Andrey Rublev had the same fate.
The performances of both players were not exactly what they had hoped for.we haven’t had a direct duel yet, so I’m almost certain that small things will decide the winner and loser.
I think Alcaraz is a bit exhausted at the moment, which many of his opponents have been able to take advantage of recently. That’s why I don’t think the world number 2 will go for an outright victory and I’m betting on him:
Rublev grabs a set against Alcaraz!
