USA Grand Prix in Austin, Sunday, 22.10.2023
With five races to go, the world championship titles are already up for grabs. Max Verstappen and Red Bull were unstoppable in 2023. With the exception of the Singapore GP, the Austrians have won every race of the season.
Mercedes, Ferrari and Co. will be hoping for the next Red Bull slip-up at the U.S. Grand Prix. The Dutchman is once again the top favorite at the Circuit of the Americas. Verstappen has already won the last two events on the circuit designed by Hermann Tilke.
However, this time he has a bigger hurdle to overcome, due to a disallowed lap in Q3 he will have to start Sunday’s race from sixth place
This race weekend also saw another sprint race. This means that on Friday, after only one practice session, qualifying was already held for the main race on Sunday.
Saturday was considered an isolated sprint day, starting with a shortened qualifying session, the result of which produced the grid for the sprint race starting a few hours later. Verstappen was able to secure victory with a superior lead.
Lots of racing action in Texas! I’ll give you the right odds for the main race on Sunday in my Formula 1 GP USA tip
The question of the drivers’ and constructors’ world champions has already been answered. But behind it everything is still open. Sergio Perez is supposed to get the maximum out of 2023 for Red Bull, i.e. secure second place in the championship.
But the Mexican keeps stumbling and is only 30 points ahead of Lewis Hamilton. He failed to see the chequered flag in Japan and in the Qatar sprint, and because of the disappointing qualifying in Doha he only finished tenth in the main race as well.
Experts expect Red Bull’s race winner from Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan to retire soon in 2023. Verstappen has collected almost twice as many points, would be able to bring home the team championship on his own with the current dominance.
Speaking of the Constructors’ World Championship, there’s also a lot going on. Mercedes is looking to secure second place, bringing a 28-point lead to Texas and a new underbody that also acts as a groundbreaking part for the upcoming 2024 race car.
Those looking to place a bet on the Constructors’ Championship before the race should take a look at Bet365’s Duel Bets. The runner-up title should be hard to take away from Mercedes (1.28) according to Bet365. Ferrari was missed a 3.50.
Despite the narrow margin, the big difference is easy to explain. After all, Mercedes had strong race pace in Qatar, was considered the second fastest car and would have easily celebrated a double podium if Lewis Hamilton and George Russell had not collided at the start.
While the record world champion had to park his Mercedes, his young compatriot was able to continue and still plow his way up to fourth place from the back of the field.
Even if the Mercedes runner-up title should be a safe bet, I would focus on the duel between Ferrari and McLaren. After all, strong 1.50 odds await Ferrari here. The Italians have a comfortable 68-point lead.
Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz should always be able to push into the top 6 to collect enough points. Even with a permanent seventh and eighth place behind McLaren, Red Bull and Mercedes, McLaren would need double podiums on an assembly line to still threaten Ferrari.
But I don’t think McLaren can do that in view of the strong Mercedes pace of late, despite the strong driver pairing of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. And Perez, with the strong Red Bull, could also take one or two podiums.
At the US GP, Verstappen got odds of 1.37 due to his rather poor grid position of six. The pace would have been enough for pole and in the race Red Bull is even stronger compared to its opponents. A foretaste was given in the sprint, in which he again drove away from everyone.
That Mercedes is rated so weak is surprising after the race pace in Qatar. However, Austin is again a completely different track with rougher asphalt and significantly more elevation changes.
In any case, the top-3 odds for Hamilton (1.47) are lucrative and not bad odds. He takes up the race from third place.
The last 5 races at the Circuit of the Americas:
Hope for improvement this weekend has Nico Hülkenberg. For the team’s home race, his Haas receives updates to the car. Will it be enough for points this weekend? Despite the innovations, the betting providers do not have high hopes.
Bwin gives the Emmericher a whopping 6.00 odds. However, qualifying, actually the great strength of the “Hulk”, went mightily in the pants. He had to pull out of the race in Q1.
Total: The starting position on Sunday is definitely more exciting than in the last few races. After all, Verstappen first has to fight his way past five drivers to claim the next Red Bull victory.
But in race trim, together with his vehicle, he forms the strongest unit and should be at the front again in the end. Behind them, I expect Mercedes to be slightly ahead of McLaren. Ferrari is again likely to be troubled by tire wear.
I expect Verstappen to be knocking on the door of the top positions after just a few laps, but at the latest to prevail over his rivals with a better strategy, which he can do thanks to good tire management.
However, since the race win odds are no longer worth it due to the strong Saturday, I’m going for Perez’s top 6 odds. Interwetten offers a 1.60.
The Red Bull is by far the fastest car in the race and Perez should at least fight his way past the tire-eating Ferrari racers over the full race distance.
Since Alpine driver Gasly will definitely drop back, that would put him in the top 6. Already in the sprint race, the Mexican’s pace was easily enough for the top 6. I wouldn’t completely rule out the podium either.
My Formula 1 USA GP tip: Perez in the top 6!
