ATP Shanghai Tournament, Final, Sunday, 10/15/2023
Final time in Shanghai! Serving at breakfast time in Germany, Andrey Rublev and Hubert Hurkacz will battle for 1,000 world ranking points in the final round of the Masters. Rublev has yet to drop a set in the tournament.
On the tennis stage, the two stars have already played four duels, the balance is even at 2:2. I expect a very close final and have my sights set on a Betano tiebreak. Find out more in my Rublev Hurkacz tip.
Thrilling pairing in the Shanghai final. Rublev will have to stand up to Hurkacz. So far, the world number seven has not allowed himself to lose a set, but has a tough opponent in the final in Hurkacz on the other side of the court.
He had problems against the Pole in their first meetings, losing the first two matches in 2020 and 2021. On the red clay of Rome, Rublev (6-7, 6-3, 2-6) was able to equalize in the meantime, but in Miami he went down flat (3-6, 4-6).
He was able to take revenge in the spring of 2022, when Hurkacz missed two defeats within a few weeks, 3-6, 7-5, 7-6 in Dubai and at the Masters opener in Indian Wells: 7-5, 7-6.
In no less than three matches, a tiebreak was necessary for a set decision. The betting providers also have this on their radar, but still offer bettors lucrative odds of 1.70, playable at Betano, among others.
Rublev presents himself these days in absolute top condition, took with Quentin Halys, Adrian Mannarino and Ugo Humbert three Frenchmen from the field and also won against Tommy Paul and Grigor Dimitrov smoothly in two sets.
This strong performance makes him the favorite on Sunday. Betano assigns Rublev 1.65 odds, though Hurkacz (2.27) is no further behind. The big-serving Wroclaw native prevailed in the semifinals against Medvedev defeater Sebastian Korda (6-3, 6-4).
The US American was not able to continue his strong performance. After a good start, in which he did not create a break chance, Hurkacz turned up the heat.
The 26-year-old served 14 aces, converted 85 percent of his first serves into points and became more effective in his return game. With a yield of only 38 percent after the second serve, the good rate of 75 percent of successful first serves was important for his game.
He could rely on his first service these days, only against Fabian Marozsan he didn’t manage the 70 percent hurdle because of a weak start, but at least he improved to 68.
In total Hurkacz allowed only five breaks, Rublev even only four. These strong performances confirm the impression that the 1.70 for a tiebreak in the match is a perfect bet for the match.
A strong alternative is provided by Interwetten. There, ready-made combinations for the final are offered. Recommendable would be the duel win in series for Rublev in combination with over 23.5 games, the odds: 2.75.
After all, the match is unlikely to be a quick number, three sets, by the way, are at 2.20. A Rublev tournament without a match with a set win for both players has been a rarity in recent months anyway.
In the last eight tournaments in which he played at least two matches, there was at least one match in which both players won at least one set.
My Rublev Hurkacz Tip
2:2 is the score in the duel between Rublev and Hurkacz. The last two matches went to the Russian, who is rightly considered a favorite by the betting companies after a tournament without losing a set.
Three times when Rublev and Hurkacz faced each other, a tiebreak was played out. In addition, the two stars hardly let anything go in their service games in Shanghai. I expect very close sets on Sunday.
My Rublev Hurkacz tip: Over 0.5 tiebreaks
