US Open in New York, quarterfinals, Wednesday, 06.09.2023
Aryna Sabalenka is marching through the US Open field at a rapid pace. Most recently, she rolled over world No. 14 Daria Kasatkina. Will she take the next step toward her second Grand Slam title?
Qinwen Zheng awaits the Belarusian in the quarterfinals. The only 20-year-old could defeat Ons Jabeur smoothly in two rounds. In my Zheng Sabalenka tip I look at the best odds.
The exit of Iga Swiatek in the round of 16 of the US Open was a big surprise. But most tennis experts didn’t necessarily have Ons Jabeur’s exit on their minds either.
But the Tunisian was not fit enough in her match against Zheng after her two long matches against Marie Bouzkova and Linda Noskova. The Chinese was the fresher player, moved better and won 6-2, 6-4.
Now the next top-10 player is waiting, more precisely, the two of the world, Sabalenka. On the hard court, the 25-year-old is once again a different house number than Jabeur.
Sabalenka (1.30) is rightly listed as the favorite by Bet3000. With a successful bet on Zheng (3.60), the stake can be almost quadrupled.
The two ladies have never faced each other on the tennis stage. Zheng, who turns 21 in October, has only been mixing it up in the pros since last season.
In that time, she has steadily worked her way towards the top of the world, and is currently ranked 23rd in the world. Her win rate of 65 percent on hard courts is strong, and she performs even better on red clay (75 percent).
At the US Open, she had to get past Nadia Podoroska (6-1, 6-0), Kaia Kanepi (6-2, 3-6, 6-2), Lucia Bronzetti (6-3, 4-6, 6-4) and Jabeur. At 1.78 meters, she brings a good serving angle.
At the same time, she is also a big threat to her opponents on returns. Jabeur, Kanepi and Podoroska each had to give up six service games.
It shouldn’t be that many against Sabalenka, who is another four centimeters taller. The world’s number two is in a frenzy of success.
All her opponents were sent home in two straight games. None of them was able to win more than three games against Sabalenka in one set.
With a rate of over 70 percent, her first serve is almost a guarantee for winning points. In women’s tennis, this makes her one of the absolute top players in the world.
By comparison, Sabalenka lost an average of just 1.5 service games per match, while Zheng lost 2.75. This is a strong figure for the Belarusian, who is also a threat to her opponents in almost every service game.
Kasatkina, for example, had to work her magic on the second serve if she wanted to score. She only managed four out of a possible 19. Burel made six out of 20 points after service number two.
Will Zheng suffer a similar fate? Another Sabalenka show is looming. After all, the Chinese player only managed to serve more than 50 percent of her first serves in one of the four rounds. Against Jabeur, it was even only 40 percent.
My Zheng Sabalenka tip
Sabalenka is the top favorite to win the US Open. With the results and dominance on the court, it’s not a big surprise. She also won the Australian Open in 2023 and has only been defeated five times on hardcourt.
She already marched through the field in Melbourne without losing a set, only having to drop one in the final against Rybakina. I expect a 2:0 win against Zheng as well, but hedge my bets for the second set with the following bet.
My Zheng Sabalenka tip: Sabalenka wins set 1 & the match
