ATP Tournament in Queens, 2nd round, Thursday, 22/06/2023
Carlos Alcaraz was on his way to his second Grand Slam title at the French Open. However, cramps all over his body slowed down the Spaniard, who was actually so well trained.
After a break, the 20-year-old will now continue at the grass court tournament in Queens. He won his opening match after losing the first set. Jiri Lehecka now awaits him in round two.
In my Alcaraz Lehecka tip I go into the best odds!
The switch from clay to grass is a big hurdle, as the first round defeats of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev proved in the previous week.
Even high-flyer Alcaraz had a hard time in the first match. Arthur Rinderknech even won the first set and forced the Spaniard into a tiebreak in the decisive third set (4-6, 7-5, 7-6).
In the end, however, the deuce was successful. All in all, Alcaraz was in good form again after some problems at the start. Especially in the returns he showed his qualities again.
He had eleven break chances against the Frenchman, but only made use of three. It was also so close because Rinderknech showed impressive efficiency by winning three out of four break opportunities.
Alcaraz still has room for improvement on his second serve. He converted just 52 percent of the points on service number two. However, it should not be forgotten that grass is still new territory for him.
He has only played eleven matches on the fastest surface on the tour. In 2019, he stood on the green for the first time, but never played more than four matches on the court.
The young age of 20 should not be forgotten. Load control is the be-all and end-all. And the clay court season has priority for the man from Murcia.
With Lehecka, he will be up against another young star. The Czech is currently at his highest world ranking (36) and has already received the warmest words from his compatriot Tomas Berdych, who sees a great future for him.
Against high-flyer Alcaraz (1.20), Lehecka (4.50) will still have to settle for the underdog role. However, the odds for the world number two are still in a quite passable range.
Therefore, the 2:0 tip for the Spaniard slips into a lucrative range of 1.66 at Bet365. However, Lehecka should not be underestimated under any circumstances.
He turned the first set in his favour against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and didn’t let anything go in the second, having ten break chances in total.
He also scored reliably on his own service and only had difficulties at the start of the match. Fokina had three of his five chances in the first service game alone.
After that, however, the Czech was much more consistent on court. One advantage over Alcaraz is his greater match experience on grass this year. In Stuttgart, he already played Marcos Giron (4-6, 6-3, 6-4) and tournament winner Frances Tiafoe (6-7, 4-6).
The success rate of both players on the fastest surface on the tour is far apart, but that should not be a big consideration in the odds selection, as Lehecka only managed to break into the top 100 just over a year ago.
Since then, he has made further great strides. But is that enough for a chance against Alcaraz?
In any case, it is conceivable that he can get through a few games with his good service rate.
For over 9.5 games in the first round, Bet-at-home has a 1.69 in its repertoire. Even safer is the odds of 1.25 for over 8.5 games in set one. However, the odds level is more suitable for a combination ticket.
Given the many break chances of both players in round one, a set length that leads to a tiebreak is also quite unlikely. Therefore, a sub-0.5 tiebreak bet could also be considered.
Conclusion: Alcaraz bounced back well after losing the set in the match against Rinderknech. Overall, like Lehecka, he made the match harder than necessary by missing a few break chances.
On grass, both served quite confidently, but also gave their opponents chances again and again. Therefore, I think a good number of breaks on Thursday is realistic.
If that happens, the sets will probably not be played to the end. That’s why my Alcaraz Lehecka tip is for less than 0.5 tiebreaks.
