Canada Grand Prix in Montreal, Sunday, 18.06.2023
After the Spanish GP, the Formula One circus moves on across the pond to Canada.
The Canadian Grand Prix has a lot to offer on and off the track and is one of the highlights of the racing calendar for drivers and fans for good reason.
It could also be a very special weekend for Red Bull, as Verstappen and Perez have the chance of another milestone in Montreal.
The likelihood of a 100th Red Bull victory is more than high given the crushing dominance.
Only the weather could throw a spanner in the works for the Austrian racing team, which is why I also assume a rather chaotic race weekend in my forecast for the Canadian GP.
Why qualifying is already difficult to predict, but why I see Red Bull on pole again in the end, can be read in my race preview.
Formula 1 has seen some memorable GPs in Canada since 1967. Whether it was the double victory of brother and sister Ralf and Michael Schumacher or the longest race in Formula 1 history.
In Canada, spectacle is inevitable and this weekend’s GP in Montreal could also be a story richer with the 100th Red Bull victory.
For the bookmakers, who clearly favour Verstappen at around 1.33 to win the race, victory is now just a formality.
No wonder, as the Dutchman has crossed the finish line first in five of the eight races so far.
With a 53-point lead, the gap to team-mate Sergio Perez is getting bigger and bigger, but team boss Christian Horner is still piling the pile high in view of the milestone to be reached before the traditional GP in Montreal.
After the Spanish GP, rivals Ferrari and Aston Martin will now be joined by the Silver Arrows to make life difficult for Red Bull.
The extensive updates in Barcelona seemed to finally bring the hoped-for result for Mercedes.
Lewis Hamilton, who is the record holder in Canada with seven wins alongside Michael Schumacher, even spoke of the best car in a year and a half.
With odds of around 12.0, the Briton is far from his eighth Canadian win with the bookmakers, but he is the third favourite behind the Red Bull to win the race.
For Aston Martin, who have proved to be one of Red Bull’s fiercest rivals this season, have only one potential podium candidate in Fernando Alonso, while Lance Stroll produced his worst result of the season in Barcelona.
Ferrari, on the other hand, remains a bit of a surprise. From high tyre wear to questionable team decisions. The Scuderia is already no longer even in the narrow circle of favourites and even in the top 3 placings of Bet365 bets Charles Leclerc gets relatively high odds of around 5.00.
However, this is hardly surprising given his performance in Barcelona, where he was eliminated in the first round of qualifying. Team-mate Carlos Sainz, who unlike Leclerc finished in the points at his home race a fortnight ago, was also a good half-second behind the Silver Arrows per lap.
There is not much hope for Ferrari to be at the front of the field in Canada due to the characteristics of the track.
The last 5 races at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve Circuit:
Because as Leclerc himself admitted, the SF 23 lacks speed on the straights and that’s exactly what it needs on the 4.3km circuit with long passages and fast corners.
In addition to the high speeds, the many chicanes, such as the famous “Wall of Champions” shortly after the start, will require good tyre management – one of the Scuderia’s biggest problems.
However, one factor that should not be underestimated, which has already come into play in Canada in the past, is the weather.
In addition to three degrees and rain, some races have also taken place at 35 degrees and in the best weather. Along with Singapore, Monaco, Brazil and Azerbaijan, Montreal is one of the circuits on the racing calendar with the most safety car periods.
In 2011 at the four-hour rain race, Bernd Mayländer had to start the engine of his safety car a record six times.
Combined with the fact that the likelihood of retirements and racing accidents is higher at this high-speed circuit than at other tracks, this suggests that the law enforcers will be deployed again this year, which brings odds of around 1.52 at bookie Betano.
Conclusion: Also in qualifying, the pilots could already put on the intermediates and full wets with a very high probability.
This factor of course makes a prediction all the more difficult, yet Verstappen and Co. should have no problems whatsoever despite the resurgent Mercedes team, as the track suits the car best with its long straights.
Therefore, my prediction for the qualifying of the Canadian GP is: Max Verstappen has the best prerequisites with pole to repeat his last year’s victory.
My tip: Pole Verstappen
