BBL Play-offs 2023, Final, Game 1 on Friday, 09.06.2023
The Bonners could crown a historic 2022/23 season as fresh Champions League winners.
However, it would be surprising if, after such a dominant season, they were not able to prevail in this BBL final series (live on Sport1) against the seventh-placed team in the regular season.
Meanwhile, my Bonn Ulm forecast looks at which betting tips are most likely to be recommended at a verified sports betting provider from a basketball expert’s point of view.
The situation in the BBL reminds me very much of the one in the 2023 NBA Finals between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat, currently being played on the other side of the Great Pond!
On the one hand, there is a club that has dominated the regular season, winning 34 of its 36 point games. On the other hand, a real surprise. Incidentally, the RS win rate of Telekom Baskets Bonn is 94.1 %.
This is so interesting to mention because it is almost twice as high as that of the seventh-placed team in the table from Ulm, which no one would have expected to be so far in the play-offs with a regular-season win rate of just 52.9 %.
Like the Miami Heat, the Ulm team has produced incredible surprises through grit that defies words. Especially the clarity with which they have prevailed so far even against top teams immediately catches the eye of the observer.
For example, the “Spatzen” have been able to beat the respective second and third-placed team of the regular season in the respective best-of-5 series without much trouble.
We are talking about our partner Alba Berlin (3:1) and the basketball team of FC Bayern München, who were even “swept” in the semi-finals – in other words: pushed aside without defeat (3:0).
Meanwhile, the Bonners also managed to “sweep” their way into the final, even 2 times in a row. First against Chemnitz in the quarter-finals (3:0), then against Ludwigsburg in the semi-finals (3:0).
However, the previous play-off opponents, eighth and fifth in the regular season, were significantly weaker than the Ulm team. The performances in these duels nevertheless underline how dominant TBB is already heading for the BBL title from Day 1.
The distribution of roles on the betting markets should therefore be clear to everyone. The current Bonn Ulm odds indicate that TBB’s third defeat of the season is very unlikely.
Sports betting apps tested by us reveal that most providers only pay out an average of 23 cents on top for a euro bet.
In the event of a win by Ulm, however, the bet amount is usually quadrupled. It could actually be worth hoping for a small basketball miracle here.
Because the starting five of the Spatzen, consisting of Caboclo, Christen, Jallow, Yago and the Austrian Klepeisz, has a good chance to secure victory with the next favourite. At least the ratio between risk and payout is right.
The Bonners will in all likelihood entrust the build-up to the game again to TJ Shorts, who was just voted BBL Player of the Year and is generally the lynchpin in TBB’s game.
In the Basketball Champions League, the North Macedonian led the Baskets to their first-ever title just a few weeks ago and set some historic accents in the process.
TJ Shorts became the first player in Champions League history to score at least 25 points in five consecutive games.
Bonn, by the way, has managed to win each of its last four games against Ulm, but I can’t shake the impression that the Spatzer win rate contains plenty of “value” that simply can’t be ignored.
In two of those duels – including the last one in early May – only one throw separated the two teams.
In the end, TBB won against Ulm shortly before the start of the 2022/23 BBL play-offs with an unimpressive 85:83, in which, however, the aforementioned TJ Shorts emerged as the undisputed “Man of the Match” with 30 points.
Conclusion: Everyone expects a win for the Bonners, who have played a far too dominant season to let themselves be robbed of the championship.
Nevertheless, the guests from Ulm have nothing to lose and can therefore go into this opening match without any pressure.
Considering the last performance of the Spatzen in the Telekom Dome and the betting odds that are traded on the markets for a victory of the underdog, I personally start to wonder.
In my Bonn Ulm forecast, I therefore bet on the guests, because the ratio between risk and reward is simply optimal.
My tip: Victory Ulm
