NBA 2022/23, on Thursday, 11.05.2023
Tonight could be the night! The defending champions have their backs against the wall and absolutely have to win in order not to have to say goodbye to the 2022/23 NBA Playoffs prematurely!
It remains a “coin flip scenario” according to many experts – and also according to my Warriors Lakers prediction – but the surprisingly one-sided betting odds from the bookmakers make me lean towards trying my luck with the purple and gold again.
My Warriors Lakers tip yesterday fortunately panned out, while ahead of Game 5 I’m even of the opinion that this Series will come to its premature end tonight! Because the purple-golds could score their matchpoint with a little bit of luck right on the first try.
Although Golden State still managed to dominate Game 2, their Californian neighbors immediately followed up with a 127-97 win and yesterday’s 104-101 to go up 3-1. Now the defending champions are in trouble!
Glimmer of hope for the Dubs: what could be the last game of this series will be at the familiar Chase Center, where they managed their only win so far over Los Angeles.
Game 4 differed from Game 3 in that this time it was second-tier Lakers players who helped their team to victory – most notably Lonnie Walker IV.
His impact in the decisive phase of the game was so great that Walker IV even became the first reserve in 26 years to score at least 15 points in the fourth quarter in a Lakers playoff game.
Anthony Davis, on the other hand, was the usual strong reserve for Los Angeles, once again helping out both back and front. However, “The Beard” and especially Lebron James are now showing signs of fatigue…
The Lakers are tired and far from perfect, but there is still too little coming from the Warriors. So it will be hard to defend the title. By the way, the bookmakers at the NBA champion betting odds also see it that way.
Golden State finally won the duel in the zone yesterday (52:46), but especially in this game once again not much went from the three-point line.
Stephen Curry in particular could hardly land any points from downtown (3 of 14). As a team, the Dubs hit just 29% of their shots from beyond the arc. If they can’t hit it from even their “favorite” area, where on earth can they hit it?
It still remains a series on a knife edge, but the purple and gold are a little closer to putting the lid on it tonight in my eyes. But already yesterday’s match could have gone to the Dubs with a little luck.
Stephen Curry made a good game despite his weak three-point shots and took the defense of the LAL especially in the middle distance properly in the trouble. At times, the game was even on the line.
What saved Los Angeles in the end was the aforementioned strong performance of the reserves. The bench duel went to the Lakers with 27:21. In addition to Walker’s 15 points, Schröder was also an important factor for the hosts with his 10 points.
The Lakers have already proven several times this season – including in the Regular Season – to be able to handle the defending champions in principle.
Of course, the oddsmakers take into account both the home court advantage of the Californians and the fatigue of the two LAL superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the Warriors Lakers odds.
However, the ratio of winning odds averaging 1.38 to 3.00 has been far too lopsided for me.
For me, it remains a 50/50 proposition and given a possible tripling of a wager, my Warriors Lakers tip from a game theory standpoint is very clear: win LA.
Conclusion: If I could make a lucrative bet that only five points will separate the two teams, I would.
The Lakers are showing signs of fatigue, but the Dubs still can’t find their game on a consistent basis – especially from the 3-point line they remain far too harmless!
But the fact that LAL players like Dennis Schröder, D’Angelo Russell and Lonnie Walker IV can be relied on at the moment leads me to believe that the bookmakers have speculated with their rather one-sided Warriors-Lakers odds.
My prediction: LA advances to the Conference Finals in Game 5!
