Madrid Open, 1st round, Wednesday, 04/25/2024
The second clay court Masters of the 2023 tennis season is upon us. A month before the start of the French Open, Dominic Thiem will face Kyle Edmund in the first round in Madrid.
Thiem last reached the quarterfinals in Munich. Overall, things are looking up for the Austrian after the many difficult months. In my Edmund Thiem tip, I go into what bet is most likely to pay off for this match.
The mostly bad weather in Munich upset the schedule at the 250 tournament last week. That’s why two-time French Open finalist Dominic Thiem had to play twice on Friday.
First, the 29-year-old played two sets against Marc-Andrea Hüsler and turned the match around against the Swiss to win 5-7, 6-4, 6-4.
Just a few hours later, Taylor Fritz was waiting. The U.S. player, who is playing perhaps his best clay-court season in 2023, including beating Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Monte Carlo Masters, edged Thiem 6-3, 6-4.
In the first round in Madrid, Thiem goes into the match against Kyle Edmund as the clear favorite. The Austrian is assigned odds of 1.16 by the bookmakers, while the Brit’s is at 5.00.
The role of the favorite is justified. While Thiem is getting better and better into his stride, Edmund continues to struggle with his form. Injuries have set the 28-year-old back.
After August 2022, he didn’t play again until January and then had to take another two-month break until March.
His only victories came in an M25 tournament ($25,000 prize money) in Italy. There he reached the quarterfinals, but finally lost to Pietro Marino after three sets.
At the BMW Open, the former world 18 at least pulled out a straight set win against Hüsler. Edmund also narrowly lost the first set in a tiebreak: 6-7, 6-4, 3-6.
Overall, he was too error-prone in the match against the Swiss. After longer rallies, the point mostly went to Hüsler. In the end, there were twelve break chances, of which he was able to fend off 75 percent.
Even if there are still too many stray balls in Thiem’s game, I see the Austrian on a clearly better level than Edmund. In addition, the man from Wiener Neustadt moves much better on the court.
Anything other than a 2:0 success for Thiem would surprise me very much. Bet365 offers 1.57 odds for this bet, definitely this has value.
The direct comparison also shows that. Even if the duels are longer ago. 2011 and 2017 met Thiem and Edmund.
In their first meeting, the players were still part of the Junior French Open. 6-3, 6-2 Thiem won. At the ATP tournament in Barcelona in 2017, the match was also a clear number for the 2020 US Open winner: 6-1, 6-4.
The temperature jump from Munich to Madrid should also suit Thiem’s outstanding forehand. In the Spanish capital, it is almost 20 degrees Celsius more for the match than in the Bavarian metropolis.
Dominic Thiem is getting into better and better shape, while Kyle Edmund, who has also had a difficult few months, has yet to show a clear leap in performance.
In Munich, he at least fought his way to a set against Hüsler, but also benefited from numerous unforced errors by the Swiss, who only used three of his twelve break points. A big weakness is the still rather stiff hip of the Briton.
Dominic Thiem is currently back on a more stable level, the defeat against Fritz is not too significant due to the double load with two matches in one day. All in all he is currently playing on a much higher level than Edmund.
The hot conditions in Spain (around 30 degrees Celsius) will also help Thiem’s fast game.
So I expect a clear 2:0 for the Austrian in the third meeting of the two players
