ATP Tournament in Estoril, Round of 16, Thursday, 06.04.2023
It was a nice, almost unusual feeling: Dominic Thiem actually managed to start the ATP tournament in Estoril with a win! The Austrian now hopes to play himself into a flow.
On Thursday, he will meet a player who is seeded eighth here in Portugal. What makes top provider Bet-at-Home label this rival as an outsider and why I see only few chances for the Viennese? I’ll reveal that now in my Thiem Shelton tip!
Dominic Thiem had to wait until the beginning of April before he could finally celebrate his second win of 2023. After many, many eliminations at the start of various tournaments, he also struggled at first in Estoril.
In the first round, he met his compatriot Sebastian Ofner, who, curiously enough, is coached by “Papa Thiem”. The first set promptly went wrong, Thiem allowed himself a 3-6 with too many errors.
Unlike in recent weeks, however, the former world No. 3 kept his nerve, pulled himself together and eventually won 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. It was a hard piece of work, but it was worth it in the end.
He took five of 16 break opportunities, so it would have been quite possible to close the match earlier. After five defeats in a row, however, he almost didn’t care how this success had come about.
“It wasn’t easy. We trained together for a long time in the off-season and are friends. There are no surprises between us. I’m happy, this is a very important win for me.”
Although this year’s results are anything but exhilarating, Thiem believes he is better than he was in 2022, even though he actually delivered the better results back then.
“I’m actually playing much better than in the second half of 2022 when I won matches. My ball is ‘heavier’, I can hurt opponents.” He will have to show on Thursday whether that is really the case.
He enjoys great confidence in our 2023 bettor rankings, with the odds pointing in his direction at an average of 1.65 to 2.15. This is despite the fact that his opponent is actually significantly better placed than he is.
Ben Shelton is the name of the young man who wants to challenge Thiem for the quarter-finals. He is 20 years old and has already cracked the top 40 of the rankings. In Estoril he is ranked eighth.
The Portuguese soil should bring the youngster luck, because for the first time ever he is playing an ATP tournament on clay. In his 1st round match against Constant Lestienne he had quite some difficulties.
He had to put up quite a fight before a 7-5, 7-5 was on the scoreboard. Shelton is a super talent who is not yet always in control of his performance and acts too unfocused in the decisive moments.
In Indian Wells, for example, he had clearly won against Fabio Fognini, but then very narrowly failed to beat Taylor Fritz 6-4, 4-6, 3-6. Before that, in Acapulco, he had lost in a similarly unfortunate way 1-2 to Holger Rune.
Tennis fans will remember: Wasn’t Ben Shelton the big surprise at the Australian Open? He was, all the way to the quarter-finals! He played eight tiebreaks in the five matches, five of which he also won.
My Thiem Shelton Tip
For Dominic Thiem, the victory over compatriot Sebastian Ofner was a hard piece of work, a match that must have taken strength. With Ben Shelton, he will now face a completely different opponent, the US American has already troubled the greats in 2023.
In my opinion, he is too strong for Thiem to be happy about reaching the quarter-finals. He has not yet managed two wins in a row this year anyway. Therefore my tip is:
Shelton wins against Thiem!
