Estoril Open, 2nd Round, Wednesday, 05.04.2023
Italian duel at the 250 tournament in Estoril, Portugal. The sports city, which is also home to a first division football team, a former Formula 1 circuit and the clay court tournament, is the start of the clay court spring for many tennis stars.
Fabio Fognini and Marco Cecchinato meet in the second round. A duel between two Italians who have recently struggled with defeats instead of successes. Who will punch the ticket for round three?
In my Cecchinato Fognini tip, I serve up an overview and suitable odds to play by.
Not only the country of origin is identical, almost also the world ranking position of the competitors in the second round of the Estoril Open. Cecchinato, ranked 96th, has to play against his compatriot Fognini (97th).
However, the birthplaces of the two top 100 players are further apart. Fognini was born in Sanremo in the northwest. The southern Italian Cecchinato was born in Palermo.
On Wednesday, Fognini is the slight favourite according to odds. Bet365 offers 1.66 for a win, while Cecchinato is the underdog: 2.20.
For Cecchinato, 2023 has been more of a washout so far. Particularly annoying, as he finished last year with two Challenger tournament victories in Lisbon and Rio and only failed to reach the semi-finals in Ecuador against Daniel Altmaier.
In Pune, India, in January, he was eliminated by Tallon Griekspoor in round two. In the qualifying match against Max Purcell he had to retire due to injury.
After a month’s break, success continued to elude him. In Cordoba and Santiago, the tournament was again over for the 30-year-old after two matches played.
In the following Challenger tournaments in March, he suffered two first-round defeats against Riccardo Bonadio (6-7, 2-6) and Vit Kopriva (4-6, 4-6).
Surprisingly, it was back to business one week later with a win against Diego Schwartzman (6-3, 7-6): Against the clay court specialist, who could play his way up to eighth place in the world in 2020 with his performances on this surface.
However, this success does not have too much significance. The Argentine is struggling with an extreme drop in form and has meanwhile slipped to 36th place in the world. Schwartzman has lost 17 of his last 20 matches.
He repeatedly challenged the man from Buenos Aires with stops at the net and then hit a winner. However, Cecchinato’s tactics were not always successful. The second set ended in a 10-8 tiebreak.
The man from Palermo had difficulties again and again with his own service. Schwartzman, who was the better player on the court for some stretches, had twelve break chances but failed to use only 25 per cent of his opportunities.
Cecchinato, on the other hand, was convincing with his efficiency, earning four breaks on six chances. He will now face a stronger server against Fognini.
I doubt that Cecchinato will get so many break chances again, but at the same time he could falter again on his own service.
Fognini already took one Italian out of the tournament in the first round: Alessandro Giannessi. However, the 32-year-old, ranked 224th in the world, was no match for him.
This was also confirmed by the clear result: 6-2, 6-1. Fognini allowed only one break opportunity, at the same time he secured himself six successful ones in eight chances.
Cecchinato and Fognini meet for the fifth time at professional level. Three times so far, Fognini has prevailed. In Munich in 2018, Cecchinato came out on top.
In 2013, it was 1-6, 6-1, 6-2 for Fognini in Nice and 6-4, 7-6 in Sao Paulo in 2017. The Italians last met a year ago in Belgrade. Fognini was again the winner after three sets.
All matches up to the current match were played in a first round and on clay. Three of the four matches went over three sets. For a bet on three sets you get odds of 2.30 at Bet3000.
Overall, I see Fognini in better shape at the moment. Although he has only won two matches, he has also lost to in-form stars on the tour.
In Rio, Fognini even won a set against high-flyer Carlos Alcaraz. The first match in Estoril also gave an insight into his current form. Fognini won confidently and Cecchinato conceded twelve break points.
Fognini has won three of the four duels so far. I am convinced that the fifth win in the sixth match will be added to that.
My Cecchinato Fognini tip is therefore: Victory for Fabio Fognini.
