Indian Wells, Round of 16, Tuesday, 14/03/2023
Tuesday evening, at 7:00pm Andrey Rublev and Cameron Norrie will meet in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells. A duel between two players who are in very good form.
The Russian has not yet dropped a set in this Masters after the first two matches. Can he now beat the Rio Open winner? In my Rublev Norrie tip, I go into this pairing.
Andrey Rublev ignited the turbo when he was down by a break in the first set against Ugo Humbert. After being 2-4 down, the world number seven took the first set 7-5, and in the second he finally gave the Frenchman no chance with a 6-3 win.
With confident, unchallenged service games and precise, aggressive inside-out strokes, he drove Humbert into errors time and again. In addition, the 25-year-old showed fighting spirit.
Twice he turned a 0-40 deficit into game winners on Humbert’s serves. The performance does not diminish the fact that Humbert made life easier for Rublev with frequent errors.
His hard court performance is currently impressive. At the Australian Open, he was only stopped in the quarter-finals by the eventual winner Novak Djokovic (1-6, 2-6, 4-6)
In Dubai, he reached the final a fortnight ago. On the way there, he took out Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (1-6, 7-6, 7-6) and Alexander Zverev (6-3, 7-6), among others.
Only the high-flyer of the last few weeks, Daniil Medvedev, was no match for him (2-6, 2-6). In the first Masters of the year, things continued impressively.
Before the victory against Humbert, he won against Jiri Lehecka (6-4, 6-2). With this, he also took revenge for the defeat against the Czech in the quarter-finals in Doha.
For the bookmakers, the 1.88-metre tall Russian is favourite against Cameron Norrie after these performances. Bet3000 provides win odds of 1.65, the Brit’s at 2.20.
Accordingly, a clear-cut number is not expected. Over 2.5 sets are conceivable in any case. At Bet-at-home, the bet could be played at odds of 2.18.
If both players bring their serves through, over 9.5 games in the first set is also a good bet for 1.64 odds.
However, it is not yet clear whether Norrie can currently hold his own against a top player on hard court. Unlike Rublev, the current world number twelve has only played on clay since the Australian Open in January.
Her opponents in the second (Tung-Lin Wu, 6-2, 6-4) and third rounds (Taro Daniel, 6-7, 7-5, 6-2) were not top class. And in the second match, Norrie struggled after trailing the set and a tight 7-5 in the second.
In particular, his return of second serves was poor. He was only able to convert 40 per cent into points.
Norrie, on the other hand, showed a brilliant performance on clay. He reached the final twice. In Buenos Aires, he failed against Carlos Alcaraz (3-6, 5-7). A week later, however, he beat the former world number one in the final in Rio (5-7, 6-4, 7-5).
The 27-year-old now wants to build on this triumph on the hard surface. At the Australian Open, he was eliminated in the third round after a five-set match against Lehecka (7-6, 3-6, 6-3, 1-6, 4-6).
Is Indian Wells also over after three rounds? Norrie played Rublev three times, most recently at the 2022 US Open, with the Russian coming out on top in three sets (6-4, 6-4, 6-4).
A year before that, Norrie won after three sets in San Diego (3-6, 6-3, 6-4). In their first meeting in St. Petersburg in 2020, Rublev walked off the court victorious (6-2, 6-1).
Conclusion: Unlike Norrie, Rublev has not left the hard court since July 2022. Most recently, only the currently strongest player on the surface, Daniil Medvedev, was able to slow him down.
For Norrie, the hard court action is just getting started again after almost two months. He already stumbled slightly against Taro Daniel in his second match. Rublev, on the other hand, has proven that he feels comfortable on the Indian Wells court.
I see the Russian in a better shape at the moment and expect him to win against Norrie.
My Rublev Norrie tip is therefore: Andrey Rublev wins.
