ATP Tournament in Acapulco, 1st round, Wednesday, 01.03.2023
Oscar Otte continues to search for his form. At the ATP tournament in Acapulco he has the next chance to take a step forward. In the first round he will meet Jacopo Berrettini.
For the player from Cologne, the match against the brother of Matteo Berrettini should be a good opportunity to gain self-confidence. Will he succeed? I analyse the pairing in my Jacopo Berrettini Otte tip.
Oscar Otte will remember the summer of 2022 fondly. On 27 June, he was at his highest tennis world ranking to date: 36.
He even reached the semi-finals at tournaments in his home country (Halle, Stuttgart and Munich). But after the strong months on grass and clay, the worm was in.
With the switch to hard court came the dark autumn and gloomy winter for Otte. Out of 26 matches after Wimbledon, he could only win seven.
2023 he already has five tournaments behind him and a lost Davis Cup match against Marc-Andrea Huesler (6-2, 2-6, 4-6). At the Australian Open, he lost to Juncheng Shang in Round 1 after four sets (2-6, 4-6, 7-6, 5-7).
The 1.93-metre man last played in Dallas, where he at least reached the second round before suffering another first-round exit a week later in Delray Beach.
With Yoshihito Nishioka, he met the 34th ranked player in the world right at the start of the tournament and managed to take one set from the Japanese (3-6, 6-0, 4-6).
In Acapulco, Otte is now making his next attempt and, on paper, has the easiest opponent in a long time. Jacopo Berrettini, the brother of Wimbledon finalist Matteo, qualified for the 500 tournament.
For the 24-year-old it is a sensation to be there. Because normally he is represented at ITF tournaments with low prize money.
In the qualifying he managed to beat Geoffrey Blancaneaux (0-6, 6-4, 6-4) and Luciano Darderi (6-2, 6-4). Both are ranked in the top 200 in the world.
Berrettini, on the other hand, is ranked 842nd, with just 19 ATP points to his name. In 2019, he reached his highest ranking of 389th with 42 points.
Accordingly, Otte is the clear favourite with the bookmakers. His odds are 1.17, those of the Roman at 4.90.
As Otte has not found his summer form lately, the win odds are still relatively high, accordingly the 2:0 set bet for the German slips into a playable range of 1.55 at Betano.
A flagship of his game is the serve, which is a weapon especially on the fast hard courts. Against Nishioka, Otte hit 13 aces. He converted 78 percent of his first serves into points.
In the previous matches, however, his rate on second serves was weak. Against Nishioka he converted only 45 percent into points. Against Marcus Giron in Dallas it was even only 40 per cent.
It is all the more important for Otte that the first serve comes. Against Nishioka, only 32 of the 72 first serves landed in the small court square.
And Berrettini likes to be efficient on the second serve. Darderi gave up 68 percent of the points after the second serve in the qualifying. The Italian was able to take five of nine break chances.
The statistics also show that his opponents made it easy for him for long stretches in the qualifiers. In both matches, the opponents hit seven double faults.
However, Berrettini also struggles with his second serve and rarely reaches the 50 percent mark.
In his elimination in round two of the last ITF tournament, he only scored after two of his twelve second serves.
By the way, Otte and Berrettini have never met on the big tennis stage because of the big difference in the world rankings.
Conclusion: It is a sensation for Berrettini to be in the main draw in Acapulco. Against Otte, he will meet a currently weakening Top 100 player.
But the Cologne native showed an improved performance against Nishioka, securing five breaks against the 34th ranked player in the world, but struggled too often with his first serve.
If he can play at that level again, he will not give the Italian a chance in the first round. But even an Otte who is not playing at his best level should win against the 842nd ranked player in the world.
My Jacopo Berrettini Otte tip is therefore: Oscar Otte wins in 2 sets.
