ATP Tournament in Dubai, Round of 16, Wednesday, 01.03.2023
Not a very good year in 2022, very disappointing Australian Open 2023, dropped a few places in the world rankings – Daniil Medvedev has been slipping quite a bit in recent months.
In the meantime, however, the Russian has regained his composure and won two tournaments in a row. So it’s no surprise that he is the clear favourite at Bet365 in the round of 16 in Dubai.
In my Medvedev Bublik tip, I reveal why I also suspect a 2:0 win!
For many months, experts puzzled over what was wrong with Daniil Medvedev. He was only number 1 in the world for a short time, his strong service was suddenly gone, and he hardly put any trophies in his display case.
The year 2023 was supposed to start with a big success, but instead he delivered an Australian Open to forget. The end of the line was already in the 3rd round, when he lost to Sebastian Korda 0:3.
But Medvedev proved in the last few weeks that he is still a real champion. In Rotterdam he lost the first set against Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina, but in the end he was on top.
After victories over Felix Auger-Aliassime, Grigor Dimitrov and Jannik Sinner, he was completely deserved and took this self-confidence with him to Qatar. There, a 6-4, 6-4 win over Andy Murray earned him his second title of the year.
Still a long way from his former quality on serve, often not allowing his opponents to break once in the past. If this strength returns soon, Medvedev will be very difficult to catch.
In Dubai, the 27-year-old started with a very solid performance, defeating Matteo Arnaldi 6-4, 6-2. This time, he pulled through the service and did not allow a break chance. With 62% successful serves, there is still room for improvement.
Medvedev knows how to win against Alexander Bublik anyway. There have been four duels between 2016 and 2021, all of which went to the favourite, who only lost one set.
That’s another reason why the bookmakers are betting on a similar outcome this time. Medvedev enters the race with an average of 1.15 to 5.10 – that is already a clear lead.
Bublik, the world number 46, knows he has nothing to lose. Against his compatriot, although Bublik has been competing for Kazakhstan since 2017, he can probably only compete in terms of height (1.96 to 1.98).
At least he was able to save a lot of energy in his first round in Dubai, which was not really planned. He was up against a visibly battered Alexandar Lasarov.
Bublik easily won the first set 6-1, at 1-0 his opponent retired exhausted. Before that, however, at the Open Sud, he had been able to attract much more attention.
He beat Filip Krajinovic, Gregoire Barrere and Grigor Dimitrov and only lost to Hubert Hurkacz in the semi-finals. And that only by a hair’s breadth, with a score of 4-6, 6-7. He won well over 80% of his first serve points during this tournament.
The Kazakh reached the last 16 in Dubai only once, at his debut in 2020, when he lost narrowly 6-7, 4-6 to Stefanos Tsitsipas. Not everyone is confident of such a result against Daniil Medvedev.
Daniil Medvedev, by the way, is returning to the desert after a long break, having not competed here since 2019. So his best finish at this tournament is already assured, a quarter-final would be another first.
My Medvedev Bublik Tip
Is Daniil Medvedev back to his old self? In the last two competitions, the Russian has impressively shown what he has been missing in the past months. So it probably won’t be long before he can board the top 3 again.
Alexander Bublik can’t keep up with that in my eyes. The professional competing for Kazakhstan can perform well on good days, but a Medvedev in this form cannot be beaten in my eyes. Therefore my tip is:
Medvedev wins outright!
