NBA 2022/23, on Saturday, 31.12.2022
There are many question marks hanging over the game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Los Angeles Lakers at the moment. One thing is certain: Anthony Davis, one of the visitors’ most important players, will not be starting for the Californians – and probably not for a long time!
But whether Atlanta will play Bogdanovic, Capela, Hunter or even the elementary important Trae Young is also highly uncertain at this point.
My Hawks Lakers tip, meanwhile, is based on the assumption that “Ice Trae” will be fit in time to run up the score.
The Lakers’ season is taking an ugly turn right now, but it was predictable. Since the terrible injury to Anthony Davis, the purple and gold have been slipping further and further behind in the Western Conference.
In the meantime – and this is something LA fans first have to digest – only the Spurs (11) and the Rockets (10) have fewer victories in the West than their beloved Lakers (14). But it will continue like this for a while.
Because with “The Brow” an important player is missing, who both organises the defence and provides relief when the now not so young LeBron James has to go to the bench again – the consequences of his absence are not to be overlooked!
The Lakers have lost five of their last six NBA games and opened a new dark chapter in their own defensive work. That’s because it has deteriorated dramatically in the last week alone.
Los Angeles has allowed exactly 122.5 points per 100 possessions over the last seven games without Davis on the floor. This is also the main reason why the purple and gold have begun their decline.
However, this value over the same period also corresponds to the approximate defensive performance of the upcoming opponents. Because here, too, various absences ensured that the defence had to be thrown together again and again and thus operated far beyond its best performance.
The home advantage certainly plays into the Hawks’ favour. After all, Los Angeles has a poor away record of 6 wins to 13 losses away from home – and yet that would not be a deciding factor for a home win bet for me.
Atlanta has several key players like Bogdanovic, Capela, Hunter, Johnson and even Trae Young, who are all injured and whose participation cannot be guaranteed 100% tonight.
Trae Young, in particular, is an indispensable element of the red and white, who had to sit out his boys’ last appearance for the first time in weeks. Atlanta nevertheless lost in the end to one of the strongest teams in the NBA at the moment – the Nets – by a very narrow 107:108.
One could argue at this point that Atlanta is therefore in a position to successfully stand up to a weakening franchise like the Purple and Gold even without Trae Young. I would not fundamentally disagree with this assumption.
However, it makes a big difference whether Trae Young performs or not – and since I haven’t read anything in this regard that convinces me otherwise, I strongly assume that he will start tonight.
This is important for my Hawks Lakers tip, because the Californians can’t handle a superstar of this calibre with their current defensive personnel. In this context, the loss of Davis certainly hurts the LAL coach the most…
Predicting the use of Youngs tonight, a Hawks win to me represents as plausible a scenario as a high scoring game that could unearth at least 230 if not slightly more points.
This would not be an unusual scenario by any means, as the two head-to-head match-ups played in the 2022 calendar year alone both scored over 250 points, providing plenty of entertainment.
I would also prefer such an over bet to a win bet because the head-to-head match-up is 2-2 after games, using the last four meetings as a basis.
A Hawks win has thus always been followed by a successful Lakers revenge over that period….
Since Atlanta could win the last showdown 129-121, by that logic it would be time for another win for the purple and gold.
Conclusion: The Lakers would love to save themselves for a Christmas or New Year’s break, which simply does not exist in the NBA. Consequently, they are forced to continue playing basketball during Anthony Davis’ injury layoff.
If Trae Young doesn’t suit up tonight, I’d honestly leave my hands off any bets, although even in that case a win for his Hawks is considered the most likely outcome of the game.
However, should Ice Trae actually play, he will certainly be the driving factor in helping the red and whites to a commanding victory and pushing the score to lofty heights.
My Hawks Lakers tip: Atlanta wins with a handicap of -7.5..
