NBA 2022/23, on Thursday, 15.12.2022
Although the World Cup final in Qatar is already on Sunday, until then I will also pay attention to the explosive NBA match between the Dallas Mavericks and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Among the interesting things readers will learn in my present Mavericks Cavaliers prediction is, for example, that the NBA’s best defence also happens to be one of the weakest away teams in both conferences …
This past Week 8 was cause for celebration for all Mavericks fans. Because their favourites won their two most important games, one against the Suns (130-111) and the other against the Nuggets (116-115).
Since Thanksgiving, the Mavs have taken more three-pointers than any other team in the league (51.3%). It is probably also thanks to this tactical adjustment that they were able to win the two aforementioned top games in the first place.
Against Phoenix and Denver, a whopping 37 of a total of 77 – i.e. 48 % of all Texas three-point shots – landed in the opponent’s basket. That small but subtle adjustment could come in handy, especially tonight.
The Mavs then won 121-114 against the Oklahoma City Thunder yesterday after superstar Luka Doncic sat out the previous game against the Bulls. His output against OKC: 38 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assists.
Admittedly, the opponent was “only” Oklahoma, but the Slovenian – as I will explain in more detail – is an extremely effective means of putting points on the board.
Especially against the Cavs, you have to come up with something on the way forward anyway, since they demonstrably have the best defence in the NBA.
In that regard, the Mavs’ current tendency to shoot relatively accurate 3-pointers could prove valuable in avoiding having to work their way up to the opponent’s board.
As I mentioned earlier, Doncic sat out the penultimate game against the Bulls. Yet, on that very night, his Mavs suffered only the second loss this season in which they were outscored by their opponent from the 3-point line.
With the Slovenian in the starting five, however, this mishap should not happen to them again. Especially since the Mavs’ superstar seems to have had the knack against the Cavaliers for years.
Aside from averaging an astounding 33.1 points per game this season, Doncic has emerged as Man of the Match against the Cavaliers this March with 35 points and 13 assists.
It was no coincidence that the Mavericks won this showdown 120-112. The Texans’ style of play does not suit the Cavs – after all, seven of the last eight direct duels have gone to the Mavs.
On the other hand, the Cavaliers’ machinery ran like clockwork for long stretches of the season, but recently the defeats have piled up – three in the last five appearances.
The fact that these have all occurred away from home is probably no coincidence either – especially when you look at this finding in a broader context …
Cleveland, after all, is the third-best team in the Eastern Conference with a 17-11 record, but at the same time has lost eight of its last nine away games.
The fact that the only moment of success since the beginning of November was celebrated at the Pistons, of all teams, the worst team in the NBA, is an absolute indictment of the best defence in the league.
The Cavs, by the way, are also the only NBA team that is neither among the best 10 nor the worst 10 teams in the NBA in the categories of shooting, free throw rate, turnovers and rebounds.
What is “striking” about Cleveland, however, and what the sports betting fan should definitely consider when placing a bet, is their extreme unpredictability in the final period.
Only last week they managed to win a game against the Lakers with a 21:6 point lead in the fourth quarter and at the same time to give away another one against the Kings with 0 points during the last 10 possessions of the game.
By the way: The Mavericks are slightly favoured over the Cavs on the markets by betting providers with Paypal as a means of payment – but also those without – with odds of circa 1.76.
Summary: The Cavaliers have been sensational on the defensive end but have not been productive enough at the basket in recent performances.
The fact that Cleveland has lost eight of its last nine NBA away games should also give the coach pause for thought. The Mavs are also an extremely tricky opponent from the visitors’ point of view.
Apart from the fact that the Texans have won almost every one of the last nine direct duels, they are currently also extremely “eager to throw” from beyond the arc.
With sufficient accuracy, even the best defence in the league could be outwitted with ease …
My Mavericks Cavaliers tip: The Mavs score from long range to win
