ATP Tournament in Stuttgart, semi-finals, Saturday, 11.06.2022
Once in Munich on clay, once in Stuttgart on grass – Oscar Otte is playing the best year of his career with now two semi-finals! After Alexander Zverev’s injury, he is the great German hope and now wants to reach the final for the first time.
On Saturday he will face a real top star in front of his own crowd, but he is coming back from injury. In my Otte Berrettini tip, I reveal why I have a lot of confidence in the German and bet on him to win at least one set, even though the German betting companies are rather sceptical here!
No effort, no jubilation, no emotions – Oscar Otte probably imagined his second semi-final on the ATP Tour quite differently. Actually, he should have played Benjamin Bonzi on Friday.
Shortly before the match, however, the Frenchman called off with stomach pains and the match fell through. Otte took a sporting view of the situation and knew: “At least I saved important energy. He is Germany’s second best tennis player and will soon crack the top 50 for the first time.
A few weeks ago in Munich, he lost in the semi-finals to shooting star Holger Rune and missed his first final. Now he will quickly get another chance, after Stuttgart’s performances so far the final would certainly not be undeserved.
Otte was the man of the tiebreaks, winning both his matches 7-6, 7-6. First he beat Daniel Altmaier with this close result, then he caused a fistful of surprises by beating Denis Shapovalov outright.
The 28-year-old’s service game has been excellent so far, Altmaier did not break at all, Shapovalov once. He is winning more than 80% on his first serve, and if he performs like that in the semi-finals, Berrettini will have a hard time.
Otte against Berrettini, wasn’t there something before? At the last US Open, the German sensationally reached the last 16, where he met his current opponent. The score was 1-1 before Otte fell on his hand.
Visibly handicapped, the match ended with a 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 for Berrettini. Four years ago at Roland Garros, the Roman also won 3-1. So Otte has already shown twice that he can put the fear of God into him.
While Oscar Otte won both his matches in Stuttgart outright, albeit narrowly, Matteo Berrettini twice had to go into a third set. The 26-year-old is making his comeback on the Neckar, having missed the entire clay-court season with an injury.
It is obvious that he is not back to his old strength yet. Against Radu Albot in the 1st round, he won 6-2, 4-6, 6-3. It was a similar story in the quarter-finals, where he faced compatriot Lorenzo Sonego.
3-6, 6-3, 6-4, somehow Berrettini’s matches can always be analysed in a similar way. He only used two of ten break chances against Sonego, but only allowed one break on his side.
When it comes to serving, Berrettini is almost back to his old self, but when it comes to returning, he has problems even with perfect fitness. 21 aces against Albot, seven against Sonego, of course one cannot speak of an improvement in performance here.
My Otte Berrettini tip
Oscar Otte faces a historic chance to reach an ATP Tour final for the first time in his career on Saturday. Anyone who beats a Denis Shapovalov smoothly and stands out with a brilliant serve has every right to aim for the final.
His opponent, Matteo Berrettini, doesn’t fare quite as well in my analysis. Of course, the Italian is still a world-class man on his comeback, yet he reveals clear weaknesses. In this respect, I can’t imagine him beating the strong Otte 2:0.
I therefore bet: Otte will win at least one set!
