NBA Playoffs 2022 on Friday, 27.05.2022
The Dallas Mavericks were able to break free from the stranglehold of the Golden State Warriors once again! The Texans are still down 1-3 after games, but at least managed to avoid a so-called “sweep”.
However, the Series is now shipped back to California, where the Dubs have already won their first two games in impressive fashion.
With their own crowd behind them, I’m assuming in my Warriors Mavericks tip that the simply stronger Yellow and Blue will finally secure their eligibility for the NBA Finals tonight…
When you pit two capable NBA teams against each other multiple times, experience tells us that the stronger team is unlikely to win every single game. Daily form and game play can always lead to deviations from the norm!
Such a “deviation” was exactly what happened in the Mavs’ victory the day before yesterday, which prevented the Californians from punching their ticket to the NBA Finals early! But tonight I expect the Warriors to finally close the bag!
The Mavericks are inferior to their opponents in just about everything, but put in an unexpectedly good performance in Game 4 that was well above their averages.
Consequently, the probability is simply higher that Dallas will fall back into its old, less successful pattern tonight!
By old pattern, by the way, I mean habitual inferiority at the board as well as poor hitting percentage. Two significant factors that have already set the Texans way back in this series.
Yesterday’s win was exceptional because it was the first time the Mavs hit 50% of their shots in this series. In addition, it was only the fourth time in the playoffs that they have sunk 20 three-pointers.
A possible recipe for success for the Mavs would be found relatively quickly, by the way – after all, Dallas has an impressive record of 20-3 in the regular season when sinking at least 17 three-pointers in the course of a game.
Consequently, even the basketball layman would be urged to recommend that the Mavs once again convert as many distance shots as possible – but unfortunately it’s not that simple!
As the old football saying goes, you are only as good as your opponent allows you to be – and the fact that the Mavericks were able to sink more than 17 three-pointers the day before yesterday for the first time ever in this series speaks for the immense quality of the Warriors’ defence.
On the board, the Dubs also dominate the opponent at will! But here, too, there was a programme deviation for the first time in Game 4! For the first time in this series, Dallas was able to win the rebound duel by a narrow margin (45-42).
Before the last duel, the Warriors led in the rebound duel by 141-98 – and even if the Mavs were able to hold their own exceptionally well the day before yesterday, these numbers clearly prove that the Dubs control the board almost at will on a “normal evening”.
The one guy the Californians still can’t get a handle on is Luka Doncic.
Although, for once, I’m not going to place a bet on the superstar today, as I expect the Mavs to go down. Doncic’s big dilemma, in my eyes, is that he will never win an NBA title with Dallas – the team just isn’t good enough for that!
The top bookies come to a very similar conclusion! Namely, the Warriors Mavericks odds suggest that the Californians should be in the NBA Finals tonight.
Should the Mavs be able to pull another rabbit out of the hat, then on average more than triple the original bet!
Conclusion: The Mavs deserved to win the last game, the numbers prove that. But a comparison of the stats from the last game with those from the first three games of this series makes it clear that the recent strong performance is more of an exception.
The Warriors clearly dominated the rebounding duel in the first three games. In addition, the Texans’ scoring rate in the aforementioned games was always below the important 50% mark.
Given the fact that the home crowd will be incessantly rooting for the Warriors to win, I expect the Texans to eventually fall back into their usual pattern and not be able to do too much.
My Warriors Mavericks tip: Halftime/Final score 1/1!
