NBA Playoffs 2022 on Thursday, 19.05.2022
Just as the earth revolves around the sun, the Dallas Mavericks’ offense will once again revolve around Luka Doncic when they visit the Golden State Warriors. A circumstance I will try to exploit in my Warriors Mavericks prediction with a player bet!
Our NBA Playoffs schedule makes it clear that these are the Conference Finals, not the NBA Finals. The “real” Finals will be played after the two conferences have named their respective champions!
Luka Doncic and his Mavs are now coming for the Dubs! After the Nuggets and the physically strong Grizzlies, can the Californians now handle the Texans? At least they are in a better position than they were against Memphis!
For Golden State, Otto Porter Jr. will start in the opener after missing the last two games due to a foot injury! On this occasion, Andre Iguodala – who was also out for weeks – could possibly also celebrate his comeback.
On the other hand, who is guaranteed to return – even if only on the bench – is loud-mouthed Warriors coach Steve Kerr, who had to spend Game 4, 5 and 6 against the Grizzlies in quarantine due to a Corona infection.
Bottom line, I like the Warriors better personnel-wise – especially since some significant players will be returning. So, as usual, we can expect a strong team performance from the Yellow and Blue.
Of course, Curry, Thompson and Green, who are essential for the offensive game of the yellow-blue team, are eligible for player bets with Golden State. For the Mavs, on the other hand, the offensive stands and falls with a single name – and that is Luka Doncic.
The Slovenian may not be as good in the backcourt, but what he does under the opponent’s basket is unbelievable! Doncic has impressed me so much during these playoffs that I actually thought he and the Mavs could pull off the surprise in the deciding game against the favoured Suns.
Personally, I’m really not sure how this exciting game will turn out, because a lot will depend on the form of the day. But to be honest, I don’t really care, because my “betting focus” is on Luka Doncic.
Because while everything else seems uncertain, the Mavs’ superstar is Mr. Reliable in person. The Slovenian not only delivered in the series against the Jazz (29.0 PPG; 46.9%) and the Suns (32.2 PPG; 45.7%), but also gradually improved.
Basketball fans can confidently assume that the exceptional player will once again carry the Mavericks’ offence. Doncic, by the way, is the player who holds the ball the longest in the playoffs for the third year in a row (an average of 10 minutes per game).
Generally the Mavericks are very ball-fixated! After the first 12 games of these playoffs, the Texans’ possession time is averaging 22.4 minutes per game, the highest of any team remaining!
Consequently, Luka Doncic will take a lot of time to get into a good shooting position. From the Warriors, on the other hand, basketball fans can expect a lot of passing and equally quick completions.
With 340 passes per 24 minutes, Golden State is even among the top 2 playoff teams in terms of ball circulation. Dallas, on the other hand, is the franchise that passes the ball the least in this category with 273.
The top bookmakers obviously know what role the “Doncic factor” will play, however I can’t blame them for favouring the home side in their Warriors Mavericks odds.
So the Dubs, who are better stocked across the board, are going in with win odds currently at 1.46, while for the reverse it’s an average of 2.80 that can be perceived on the markets at the moment.
Conclusion: As far as the outcome of the game is concerned, a lot will depend on the form of the day – even if the Warriors can count on a few important returnees. The Mavs, however, are capable of anything at the latest after their win over the Suns.
The only thing I’m blindly counting on tonight is that Luka Doncic will produce points on a conveyor belt again. That’s because the Slovenian is the mainstay of the Texans’ offensive game, holding the ball for an average of 10 minutes per game – a playoff best.
This means that the superstar from the Balkans will pass the ball less often than most other NBA players and will therefore get more completions, which should drive his score up again during the game.
My Warriors Mavericks tip: Doncic scores more than 33.5 points!
