NBA Playoffs 2022 on Wednesday, 27.04.2022
A balanced series – especially in this first round game – probably no one would have thought possible before the playoffs started! The Phoenix Suns now desperately need to show the New Orleans Pelicans that they reached the Finals last year for a reason.
While the Black and Violets have their own crowd behind them again this time, Game 4 has made me a real fan of the Pels!
Accordingly, in my Suns Pelicans tip, I actually expect the underdog to not only win, but possibly advance.
It’s actually unfathomable that the Suns, who finished the regular season with an out-of-this-world record of 64-18, have such problems against a franchise that went (36-46) to secure their playoff appearance only in the play-in tournament.
But after four games, the score is now 2-2 and the momentum is clearly on the side of the Pelicans – even if home-court advantage switches back to Arizona. Last night’s 118-103 win for the Pels was the clearest victory in this series so far.
Especially Brandon Ingram, who never played in the playoffs before this season, outgrew himself last night and had another strong game with 30 points and 4 rebounds. I completely miss that same consistency from the Suns, though!
Of course, the Arizonans are currently dealing with the loss of Devin Booker! His impact on the Suns’ offense has been tremendous and the recent injury will likely prevent him from being able to participate in the action tonight as well.
In both wins over the Pels, it was also Chris Paul who pulled the chestnuts out of the fire. The veteran’s strong finish in Game 1 and Game 3 gave Phoenix a last-gasp win in both games in a game they thought was all but lost.
But CP3 is flesh and blood and already 36 years old. In fact, he has never let his age show as much as he did in Game 4. Without his “magic”, however, the Black and Violets are completely falling apart.
Chris Paul scored four more points during the first six minutes of the game last night, but he didn’t score again in the remaining 42 minutes – not even from the free throw line!
On top of that, the Suns also lost out on the board again. Fans of the Black and Violets will hate to hear it, but with 48 to 39 the Pels were once again ahead in terms of rebounds – and that proves to be decisive in this series.
Because the Pelicans have a lower success rate on their shots from the field. But as long as they can make up for this deficit with so-called “second-chance points”, the quantity and not the quality of their attempts will prevail!
I actually believe in the sensation because the Pels, with young players like Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado – who nobody had on their radar before the playoffs – deliver an enormously strong defensive performance that definitely impresses the Suns.
The last game provides me with good examples of this. I’m referring to key moments like Jones’ monster block on Bridges in the early stages of the game or the generally strong man-to-man defence of Alvarado, who hardly gave Chris Paul a chance.
Scenes like these are what I use to determine why New Orleans could well be in for the big time at this crucial stage. Especially since the Suns just look leaderless and CP3’s body doesn’t quite seem to be in it anymore.
The top bookies seem to be venturing an entirely different prediction for Game 5 than I am. Game 4 was an indication that the Pelicans can certainly be expected to pull off the big upset. The current Suns Pelicans odds make betting on the underdog a good option.
According to these, a success for the Arizonans is considered very likely with average odds of 1.39, while the Pels, on the other hand, go into the race as the clear underdog with an average of 3.20.
Conclusion: The dominance that was expected from the Suns before the Series began has simply never been noticeable. Even the two wins so far have resulted from a stellar closing offensive effort led by Chris Paul.
But Devin Booker is and in all likelihood will remain injured, while CP3 failed to convert a single point in the final 42 minutes of yesterday’s game. Without their two most important players, however, the favourites can hardly hold their own.
The Pels, on the other hand, have tasted blood and have the momentum on their side with the clearest win in this series. Home court advantage or not, as long as New Orleans continues to dominate the board and the bookies are calling such odds, I’ll stick with the underdog.
My Suns Pelicans tip: The visitors take a 3 to 2 lead!
