Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix at Imola, Sunday, 24.04.2022
The first sprint weekend of this Formula 1 season is upon us at the venerable Imola circuit. At the last Emilia Romagna Grand Prix there was plenty of spectacle, thrilling duels and a lot of crashes.
It could be similarly exciting this time, because the title fight between Red Bull and Ferrari is in full swing and could get another highlight at the home race for the Scuderia. For rain is forecast and the field of drivers is closer together than it has been for a long time.
Verstappen could win important points in the sprint in the fight for the World Championship and will also be in contention for victory in the race.
That’s why, in my Formula 1 prediction for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix in Imola, I believe Verstappen will fight back.
It seems like the bad luck the Scuderia has had in recent years has completely disappeared into thin air. The car is running superbly, Ferrari is leading the constructors’ championship and is, it seems at the moment, racing outside the competition.
Even Red Bull, the only competitive car at the moment, seems to be struggling to keep up with the Italian cars. One of the reasons for this is that Ferrari was able to concentrate on the new season earlier than its competitors last season.
Red Bull and Mercedes had to give everything until the end in the fight for the title, while Ferrari could already concentrate on the developments for this year.
That paid off and at the moment everything seems to be going according to plan for Charles Leclerc. Now, this week, the contract with Carlos Sainz was extended for another three years.
The Spaniard, who has been having major problems in the race lately, could benefit from the confidence to perform well at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix.
After a strong sprint, Sainz will start the race from P4. This means the chances of a double podium finish for Ferrari on home soil are good. Because Leclerc will start the race from P2. The bookies are offering odds of around 2.25 for both Ferraris in the Top 3.
In the first sprint race of the season, it was, as expected, a close duel between Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc. However, the Dutchman put in a strong performance, as he had all weekend.
In dry conditions, there were not several red flags as in Friday’s qualifying, but many duels and the result showed that overtaking opportunities are definitely available on this track despite tight corners.
Carlos Sainz in particular, who had a disappointing qualifying, proved his strength in the sprint and not only scored important points but also made up several places.
I therefore expect a podium in the race, which will be split between Red Bull and Ferrari, as Norris in the McLaren didn’t have the pace to keep up with the two favourites and the Haas with Magnussen also lost ground.
The big loser here is also Mercedes. Because both Russell and Hamilton will not start in the top 10 and even for a top 6 finish the bookies are offering around 3.00.
From the track layout, as seen in the sprint, Ferrari and Red Bull have the advantage, as over 70% of the track and especially also the corners are driven at up to 205 km/h.
A lot of strategy is required here, as the corners are tighter than on the modern tracks, making overtaking difficult. On the other hand, it is easier on the start-finish straight, which at over half a kilometre is ideal for overtaking.
The weather played a decisive role in the first European race this year. Although it remained dry during the sprint and there was only one accident as a result, it already became apparent in wet conditions through slips by Sainz, among others, how challenging the track is in the rain.
The weather forecast is not yet 100% certain. It is supposed to rain slightly, but the track may dry out again. Nevertheless, this track remains a challenge, as it is difficult to see where it is already dry. Mistakes will be punished with a vengeance, especially in the rain.
Last year, Max Verstappen won here, just ahead of Lewis Hamilton, who pulled off an incredible recovery. This year, however, it could be a different duel.
Because Max Verstappen defied the car’s problems, the updates seem to be taking effect and it showed again in the sprint that the gap to Leclerc is razor-thin.
Because although Ferrari has the better car in fact, the sprint showed all of Verstappen’s talent and strategy. It also showed that again Leclerc had problems with the tyres and in the end with the pace.
Conclusion: The set-up of the car is more in demand at the demanding track than at other tracks. Verstappen and Leclerc showed the most nerves of all and have the best chance of taking pole on Sunday.
However, anything is possible due to the rainy conditions. It’s clear that Verstappen and Leclerc will again be at the front of the field for the win.
I also see Perez on the podium, as the Mexican has had a strong season so far and will put Leclerc under pressure from the start in the race. If Sainz is as strong as he was in the sprint, there could also be a fight for third place.
In the end, it will depend on the talent and tactics of each driver, yet Verstappen has shown the better form than Leclerc so far this weekend, and even if the Dutchman loses the start, he will fight back.
Therefore, my tip for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix is: Victory Verstappen.
