Preview of the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne, Sunday, 10.04.2022
Formula 1 returns to Australia after a two-year absence and after a week’s break, the duel between Red Bull and Ferrari at the Australian Grand Prix goes into the next round.
While Max Verstappen was able to win the last race in a thrilling duel with completely new tactical means, Ferrari already showed with best times in the practice sessions in Melbourne that the performances of the first two races this year were no coincidence.
As Mercedes will not be competitive in the longer term either, I see a renewed showdown between Red Bull and Ferrari in my Formula 1 prediction for the Australian Grand Prix.
Finally, motorsport in Australia again. After a two-year break, there is finally plenty of motorsport action again at the Albert Park Circuit in Melbourne. It’s not only a premiere for the 40,000 or so fans.
For the drivers, too, a new track layout awaits them at the Australian Grand Prix, which should give the track more high speed and more excitement. Probably the biggest change is the rebuilding of the Clark Chicane.
With the removal of two corners, speeds here will increase to up to 330km/h. In addition, there are several DRS zones that allow for more slipstream duels and wider corners for better overtaking.
In addition, a slight elevation was built in several corners, so that several driving lines are possible here. In addition, the pit lane has been enlarged and the tarmac renewed, resulting in a two-stop strategy.
These modifications help Red Bull more than the competition. Because the bolide of Verstappen and Co. is the fastest in the field at top speeds.
While in the practice sessions Ferrari was just ahead in sectors one and three, Red Bull was always stronger in the second sector, sometimes averaging more than 10 km/h faster than the Ferrari.
Although Red Bull is the favourite to win the race or qualifying alongside Ferrari with odds of around 2.40, Verstappen in particular, like many other drivers, still has his problems with the track.
After all, small mistakes are nothing unusual on the new track layout. Leclerc also went off the track in the first practice session after a trial start. Those who don’t have small problems, but really big ones, are Mercedes.
While Hamilton and Co. are now getting to grips with the car’s extreme bouncing problem, the runner-up was still more than a second off P13 and Russell was also not in contention for the top 10.
The German bookmakers do not expect a double victory for Mercedes like in the last race two years ago. With odds in the high double digits for both Mercedes drivers, they are unlikely to play a role in the fight for the podium.
This is because the budget cap means that new updates cannot be tried out week after week. The three-way battle expected before the season is therefore likely to last until the European races. The other teams, on the other hand, are performing all the stronger.
McLaren and Alpine in particular showed strong performances and the French team with P4 and P6 will be hoping to finish in the top 6 on Sunday.
Nevertheless, Ferrari and Red Bull will share the podium. While two years ago it was Valtteri Bottas who ended Ferrari’s two-year streak with victory, this time Leclerc has a very good chance of taking the Scuderia’s third win in 5 years.
While in the past it has been a very one-sided race with little spectacle, that could change with the track modifications and the new cars.
Conclusion: In the fight for pole, I think it will be a duel between Leclerc and Verstappen this time, which will only be decided with the last lap.
Of course, Ferrari was better in the practice sessions, but the last race also showed that Verstappen performs best under pressure. The speed advantage could help him compensate for the performance problems.
In the end, it will depend on the form of the day and the number of mistakes, because both teams are almost identical in terms of their cars.
That’s why my tip for the qualifying of the Australian GP is: Win margin under 0.1 seconds.
