NBA 2021/22 on Friday, 21.01.2022
Once again, I have chosen a game that exudes playoff character when it comes to NBA tips. The matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Phoenix Suns has everything that makes the basketball heart beat faster – except for a tough duel on the five!
Because DeAndre Ayton is out for the Arizonans, which is a huge advantage for the Mavs. Because their Luka Doncic is smashing pretty much everything in his path at the moment – and in fact I believe that the otherwise strong visitors are due now as well!
In November 2019, Luka Doncic scored a massive 42 points in his Mavericks’ 120-113 win over the Suns. But as we all know, things have changed for the visitors in recent years – which also had an impact on their record with the Mavs.
Since then, the 2021 NBA Finals participant has won each of its last eight duels against Dallas. That’s currently the longest Sun winning streak against an NBA franchise – now even longer than the one against the Knicks (7).
Still, I think the time is ripe for Luka Doncic and his boys to get another win over the Arizonans tonight. On the one hand, thanks to their form – and on the other hand, due to a possibly momentous breakdown on the other side.
Let’s start with the Mavs’ form. They won 90% of their last ten NBA games! And there was by no means only fall fruit among them – quite the opposite.
Because the strong Bulls, Warriors and Nuggets were all defeated by at least 14 points during this winning streak. Whoever achieves such results can also be a threat to the top of the Western Conference table.
Since his return at the beginning of January, Luka Doncic has proven to be more and more of a rebounding and scoring machine, who can hardly be challenged. In a direct match-up, it takes a strong centre to combat the Serb in the air – and the Suns don’t have that at the moment.
The Suns’ No. 1, Deandre Ayton, is out, which means Luka Doncic will have a free run. The Suns are expected to rely on JaValle McGee as a stopgap, but he is simply no match for the Serb.
Regardless of this, Phoenix remains a dangerous opponent. Nevertheless, the recent successes of the visitors should not be overrated, because in comparison, the victories of the Mavs were much more impressive.
The Suns won four of their last five games, but with the Pistons, Pacers, Spurs and Raptors, there was now no opponent that can be compared to those of the Mavericks. In fact, the sudden switch to a strong team could actually play into Dallas’ favour.
If we go to the official NBA statistics of the last ten NBA games, the Suns paradoxically do better than the Mavs in all relevant categories – and that despite the fact that the home side won nine of those games, as mentioned above.
However, it is important not to be too blinded by this, because these values say nothing about the respective quality of the opponents and do not produce a snapshot that is true to reality. After all, the elementary important DeAndre Ayton has been missing for two games.
The centre of the Arizonans is a rebound monster and grabs free balls in the double-digit range on average. If the centre is out for a long period of time, it will have a significant impact on his team’s scoring!
Conclusion: The Mavericks have lost each of their last eight duels against the Suns. That alone might instinctively dissuade many from betting on the home side to win. However, I see tonight as the best chance in years!
Because there’s no denying that Dallas has beaten just about everything that’s currently ranked in the NBA in recent weeks with clear victories over the Warriors, Bulls & Co. On top of that, the Arizonans are without their regular centre.
DeAndre Ayton will not be in the starting line-up tonight either, leaving a vacuum in the battle for rebounds and half-court dominance, which Mavs superstar Luka Doncic intends to fill.
My Mavericks Suns tip is therefore: Win for the home side!
